Blog Posting # 826; Copyright 10 January 2025. EducateMHC
Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable –attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. offsite construction). Land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’) comprise the commercial real estate (CRE’) component of MH; and, along with various forms of housing finance (e.g. chattel or ‘home only’ loans & real estate-secured mortgages), describe the post-production segment of MH.
EducateMHC is the official MH historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as perennial information source. Contact EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email gfa71562@ao..com, and www.educatemhc.com, to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry (A copy should be in every land lease community office nationwide!), & SWAN SONG –History of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955.
And my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting and authoring of 30 nonfiction texts.
George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, as well as Allen Legacy columnist and editor at large for MHInsider magazine.
‘TOTAL U.S. HOUSING STARTS’ IN NOVEMBER 2024
Yes, you read that correctly. I’ve thoughtfully changed the heretofore ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ to ‘Total U.S. Housing Starts’, per reporting month – this time November 2024. Why? Because, unlike the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly New Residential Construction report of only the volume of new single-family, site-built housing starts, this ‘Total U.S. Housing Starts’ also includes offsite construction housing types (Some say factory-built) that includes HUD-Code manufactured housing, modular & panelized (or ‘prefab’) housing, and Park Model RVs!*1
For example, the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly New Residential Construction reports 1,289,000 annualized new housing starts during November 2024, or approximately 107,416 for the month alone. But the ‘Total U.S. Housing Starts’ report, building on this Census Bureau data, estimates a grand total of 116,329 new housing starts during November, an addition of 8,913 units! Now that’s the whole housing starts story! Report methodology described in paragraphs following.
Here’re detailed descriptions of the offsite construction housing types (a.k.a. factory-built housing) cited in this ‘Total U.S. Housing Starts’ report:
HUD-Code manufactured housing, when installed on permanent foundations on building sites conveyed fee simple, are also identified as ‘single-family, site-built housing’. Manufactured housing not permanently installed, is oft sited in land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’) on rental homesites – though, in some instances said sites are conveyed fee simple (e.g. Stardust Hills in Cloverdale, IN.). All types are included in the ‘Total U.S. Housing Starts’ report. Where does HUD-Code housing production data originate? With the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’), on a subscription basis. IBTS reports monthly data, then the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’) and Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (‘MHARR’), after reporting monthly data, publish an annual total, e.g. 89,169 new HUD-Code homes during year 2023. The sole published compilation of annual MH production figures, going back to 1955, is featured in the SWAN SONG text, available for purchase via www.educatemhc.com
Then there’re modular & panelized (‘prefab’) housing, two more types of offsite construction (again, a.k.a. factory-built housing), neither tracked by anyone! Why? Offsite construction units are built to local building codes (e.g. International Code Council or ICC), so are nearly impossible to research accurately. However, some housing professionals suggest this formula: 2% of seasonally-adjusted annual housing starts, per U.S. Census Bureau reporting, then reduce to a monthly figure, e.g. 1,289,000 ‘starts’ X .02%, then divided by 12 months = 2149 estimated volume of modular and panelized units fabricated during November 2024.
Park Model RVs (‘recreational vehicle’) production is tracked and reported monthly by the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association (‘RVIA’) via their online publication RVIA News (e.g. 315 Park Model RVs produced during November 2024). Or, simply ‘google’ Park Model RV production. This category of offsite construction is included because an increasing number of Park Model RVs are being used as permanent housing, particularly in Sunbelt regions of the U.S. And reportedly, some HUD-Code housing manufacturers, while routinely producing Park Model RVs in the past, are now fabricating some in accords with the HUD-Code.
Now pull the four pieces together (i.e. ‘single-family, site-built housing’, and the three types of offsite construction or factory-built housing), beginning with the latter category:
- HUD-Code manufactured housing unit production during November 2024: 8,597
- Modular & panelized 9’prefab’) units estimated for November 2024: 2,148
- Park Model RVs produced during November 2024: + 315
- Offsite construction subtotal for November 2024: 11,060
- U.S. Census Bureau site-built housing ‘starts’ during November 2024: 107,417
- (+) Offsite construction subtotal for November 2024: + 11,060
- Grand total of all U.S. Housing Starts during November 2024: 118,477
- (-) 2148 Modular & panelized units, to offset a double count of 2148 116,329
Bottom Line: True total U.S. Housing Starts during November 2024 is 116,329 new homes!
End Note.
- Offsite construction. ‘Refers to the planning, design, manufacture, and assembly of building elements at a location different from their final location, to support the rapid spread of and efficient construction of a permanent structure.’ Wikipedia
Manufactured Housing Production @ November 2024
IBTS reports 8,597 new HUD-Code homes produced during November 2024, down from 10,283 produced the month before.
Year To Date (‘YTD’) production? As of November 2024, 96,236 new homes produced compared to 82,809 during November 2023. Well on the way to eclipsing 100,000 new homes by year end!
Production value? Again, based on the decades old ‘per unit’ value factor of $43,126/unit, November 2024 production is worth $370 million, and YTD $4.15 billion. Interestingly, if the MH industry does eclipse 100,000 units by year end, the production value alone will be $4.3+ billion. But there may be more to this story. Doesn’t anyone else find it curious that the originators of this value factor (i.e. $43,126/MH) eschew (‘shun’) updating it? For example, if the ‘per MH’ value today is closer to $70,000/unit, then this year’s production value would be $7 billion, a far sight higher than expected now! Methinks the ‘powers that be’ appear intent on understating our industry’s value to the national economy (Why?), rather than showing legislators and regulators how valuable we are. And don’t forget; this has only been about ‘production value’. What happens when we factor in retail value, rental homesite dollar volume, and more? Your input on this mysterious, self-demeaning matter? Gfa7156@aol.com
Stock Market Report for 6 January 2025
BRK-A Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (Clayton Homes) $681
SKY Skyline Champion Corporation $89.60
CVCO Cavco Industries $451.13
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation $23.50
NOBH Nobility Homes $33.00
ELS, Inc. Equity Lifestyle $66.72
SUI, Inc. Sun Communities $124.53
UMH, Inc. UMH Properties $18.66
Flagship Communities $21.42
MHPC, Inc. Manufactured Housing Properties $.62
Manufactured Housing/land lease community Composite Stock Index (‘CSI’) on January 2025 was $929. Down from $995 in December, but well above the base of $790 established in January 2022.
ONE FINAL REMINDER!
The RV/MH Hall of Fame requests all inductees/enshrinees wear their bright green blazers on 15 January 2025, to the Louisville MHShow in Louisville, KY. And continue to wear the blazers that evening at the gala social event. See you there!
George Allen