George Allen / EducateMHC Blog Mobile Home & Land Lease Community Advocate & Expert

January 25, 2022

‘GREAT RESET’ REVISITED

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 1:54 pm

Blog Posting # 674 @ 28 January 2022: EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource & textbook supplier for land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 888-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and/or visit www.educatemhc.com Previous phone #3 no longer connected.

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: to promote HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Be MHM certified!
_____________________________________________________________________________\

INTRODUCTION: The Great Reset, it seems, is on just about everyone’s mind these days – even the folk in manufactured housing, based on the encouraging email responses received to date. And ladies, get familiar with WAMH – you’ll likely want to participate in this latest advocacy in behalf of manufactured housing and land lease communities. And POTPOURRI is back with more wise and pithy information and advice. GFA

I.

‘GREAT RESET’ REVISITED

It’s easy to tell when I ‘hit a nerve’ with a blog posting. The email messages and phone calls pour into me. Such was the reaction to last week’s posting titled: ‘A Great Reset For Manufactured Housing & Community Portfolios?’ Equal number of responses from the housing manufacturing side of the industry and community portfolios.

“This Great Reset will take time. I’d emphasize rural housing, retirement cabins, RVs for low cost family and transient labor, making manufactured homes coded – e.g. UBC or whatever, to ease acceptance by a well-established and respected NAHB.”

“I read your blog. This is one of your best. (&) Redouble one’s efforts to have all in-community homes looking great, and homeowner/site lessees (my term, GFA) fully engaged in promoting the land lease community lifestyle. “I would never have asked DC for help George. Geesh!”

Further thoughts on the subject. While the final tally won’t be effected for another week (i.e. Think 1 February 2022), we’ll certainly, as an industry, eclipse the 100,000 shipments of new HUD-Code homes, unseen since year 2006 and its’ tanking figure of 117,510+/-.*1 Hmm. Wonder if we’ll meet or better the 2005 figure of 146,644 – or 146,744 – depending on who one asks? In any event, as I’ve pointed out before, it’s unlikely we’ll ‘ever’ return to the acme year records of 372,943+/- in 1998 (Ah, the year of the Developer Series homes) and 579,940 in 1973. Wonder what blame corporate ‘consolidation’ plays, if any, in this compression of national market presence? And likewise, where community portfolios are concerned; will continued ‘consolidation’ (i.e. absorption of smaller property portfolios into larger ones), have minimal or profound effect on sole proprietorship development of raw land into full scale land lease communities? So there’s still a lot out there to think about relative to a Great Reset for manufactured housing and land lease communities.

End Note.

1. Why the +/- clarification of some annual MH shipment totals? In those instances, according to comprehensive listings (i.e. from 1955 to present day) in the text SWAN SONG, there are, and continue to be, different annual new HUD-Code housing shipment totals researched by the Institute of Building Safety & Technology (‘IBST’) and reported by HUD and MHARR, compared to similar-but-different totals posted by the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’) and its’ member companies. To order a copy of said text, visit www.educatemhc.com


II.

HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?

We’ve been here before! The current issue of MHINSIDER magazine, in a feature article penned by publisher Patrick Revere, ‘New Organization to Advance Women in Manufactured Housing’ introduces readers to Women Advancing Manufactured Housing or WAMH. He introduces Maria Horton, MHM, of Newport Pacific Family of Companies, and Justine Natalie of Dynamic MH Solutions as two of five organizers of this effort to advocate for manufactured housing and land lease communities. Three additional organizers include Sherrie Clevenger from CoreLogic, Maryuri Barberan, MHM, from Pentagon Properties, and Kim Schultz-Rainford from Innovative Housing Solutions. Plans for WAMH took shape during a roundtable discussion at the recent SECO conference.

What’s the precedent to WAMH? Well, way back in the mid-1990s, around the time MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division took shape, a group of female owners/operators of (then) manufactured home communities agreed to meet at annual Manufactured Housing Congress events in Las Vegas, to network and work together to advance the role of women in the manufactured housing industry. The name of that group was Manufactured Housing Executive Women, or MHEW for short. Two contemporary RV/MH Hall of Fame inductees, Christine Lindsey, MHM, of UMH Properties, and Dee Pizer, MHM, of Zeman MHC, were among that august group. While all started off well and enthusiastically, in a few years, interest in the group waned, and it eventually stopped meeting.

This time around, given the proven leadership abilities of the five organizers, expect to see WAMH grow and take a place among organizations dedicated to advancing women executives throughout the manufactured housing industry. If interested in getting in touch with these women, let me know via gfa7156@aol.com


III.

SOME MORE POTPOURRI

Here’s a Short Course in Human Relations, dating all the way back to the year 1978 or before.

The 6 most important words: ‘I admit I made a mistake’

The 5 most important words: ‘You did a good job’

The 4 most important words: ‘’What is your opinion?’

The 3 most important words: ‘Will you please?’

The 2 most important words: ‘Thank you!’

The 1 most important word: ‘We’

The least important word: ‘I’

Those of you who’ve read my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, now know that besides being a USMC combat engineer officer, while in Vietnam during 1968 & 69, I was trained in Okinawa, to be an Atomic Demolition Munitions (‘ADM’) technician. It paid an extra $100.00 per month. And I was expected, when so ordered, to mate up with my ADM (the size of a soccer ball and strapped to my chest) to be transported by low flying helo, into North Vietnam, near Hanoi. There I’d emplace the ADM, set the timer and ready the firing device before attempting to return alone to South Vietnam. I recently came across more information about the previously secret ‘back pack nuke’, powerful enough to “destroy a dam…drop a mountainside down on an invading army, vaporize essential command and control installations, wipe out a large formation of tanks….” Nuclear weapon protocols at the time required two technicians present when utilizing ADMs, but the Marine Corps opted for just one man. There are two photographs in the aforementioned texts showing just how destructive ADMs could be.

You from Michigan? Well nearly a quarter century ago the Michigan Department of Labor, Safety Education, and Training created and widely distributed a set of 2 ½” X 4 ½” business card-like paper instructions relative to SKILL in LEADING, SKILL in PLANNING, SKILL in INSTRUCTION, and several additional topics. I came across the cards early on in my management career and have shared their wisdom widely. For example, here are the four steps recommended ‘How to Handle a Problem’:
Get the Facts. Be sure to have the whole story.
Weigh and Decide. Don’t jump to conclusions.
Take Action. Don’t pass the buck.
Check Results. Did your action help operations?

In this instance I used this Michigan wisdom to create and copyright the first of five Management Wisdom cards (1979) – since distributed in every MHM class. My parallel?
Select a Problem, a Task – Consider it a challenge, an opportunity.
Define it, Document it.
Study & Question Every Detail
Research & Organize Data
Refine & Digest Data
Produce & Rework Ideas
Implement & Monitor
Follow-up & Recap Results.
If you’d like a free copy of this Management Wisdom card, let me know via gfa7156@aol.com

Are you interested in learning ‘How to Eat Crawdads’? Maybe I’ll have nerve to share with you in days to come. For now, here’re the first and last paragraphs:
“Use only live, healthy crawdads. Boil until they turn red and float to the top, usually about eight minutes after the water returns to a roiling boil. The rule of thumb is a gallon of water to two pounds of crawdads.” (&)
“The only adult drink permitted with boiled crawdads is beer. Kids can drink soda. Leave the wine in the cellar.”
Oh yes, there’s more….



George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMHC

January 21, 2022

A ‘GREAT RESET’ FOR MANUFACTURED HOUSING & COMMUNITY PORTFOLIOS?

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 12:58 pm

Blog Posting # 673 @ 21 January 2022: EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource & textbook supplier for land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 888-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and/or visit www.educatemhc.com Previous phone #s no longer connected.

Motto; ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: to promote HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Be MHM certified!

INTRODUCTION: This week’s posting ranges from the very serious (Part I,) to a mixture of humor and wise advice (Part II). While I don’t want to come across, in my writing, as a naysayer or pessimist, I do have serious concerns about the present and future viability of our industry and its’ real estate component (i.e. land lease communities). This week I only scratch the surface of such concerns; attempting to remain positive throughout the commentary. GFA

I.

A ‘GREAT RESET’ FOR MANUFACTURED HOUSING & COMMUNITY PORTFOLIOS?

By now many, if not most, Americans have at least heard of the coming Great Reset.
Is it “…a conspiracy theory imagining a vast left-wing plot to establish a totalitarian one-world government?” OR, simply “…a means of addressing the ‘weaknesses of capitalism’ purportedly exposed by the COVID pandemic.”?*1 Or, something altogether different?

Historically, the phrase ‘Great Reset’ became commonplace upon publication of the 2010 book, ‘The Great Reset’, by Richard Florida. Here, the author suggested the 2008 economic crash was the most recent Great Reset; others being the long depression of the 1870s and Great Depression of the 1930s. The World Economic Forum (‘WEF’) in Switzerland, in its’ recent book, ‘COVID-19: The Great Reset’, suggests ‘weaknesses of capitalism’ were exposed by the COVID pandemic.

Two months before the COVID outbreak in China hit the news scene, the WEF, with others, engaged in a pandemic exercise, ‘Event 201’, simulating an international response to an outbreak of a coronavirus. Results closely resembled what happened during the future COVID scenario, hence the tie to it being another Great Reset. And shortly after its 50th meeting, during June 2020, the WEF declared “…COVID represents an ‘opportunity (to) be seized’, to reimagine our world by …”Big Tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, and Amazon….” to introduce a bewildering economic amalgam (‘combination or compound’) ‘stakeholder capitalism’, a.k.a. ‘corporate socialism’; some say ‘communist capitalism.’*2

A consequence of this social justice aspect of the Great Reset? “…government, banks, and asset managers use the Environmental, Social & Governance (‘ESG’) index to squeeze non-woke corporations and businesses out of the market.” It’s essentially a social credit score used to drive ownership, even control production, away from those non-woke and non-compliant.*3

Specifically, “…the governmental favoring of industries and players within industries – what used to be known as corporatism or economic fascism”…continues in play during the Great Reset. (as) “Approved corporations’ tend towards monopolization, exercising control over production and distribution IN AS FEW FAVORED CORPORATIONS AS POSSIBLE, while eliminating industries and producers deemed non-essential or inimical (‘harmful’).” WHOA! Some will argue this is already happening, via industrywide consolidation, among HUD-Code housing manufacturers….think of the Big 3-C corporations ostensibly controlling proceedings of the Manufactured Housing Institute – and its National Communities Council division.

So, has the Great Reset already impacted (i.e. impacting) manufactured housing and community portfolios in the fashion just described?

We’re about to find out as we move further into year 2022. Will the Big 3-C corporations grow to claim more than 80 percent national market share of manufactured housing shipments? Will (some) land lease community portfolio owners/operators continue to negatively impact local rental housing markets with exorbitant site rent rate increases and imposition of other add-on homeowner/site lessee expenses? If so, don’t be surprised when a Great Reset negatively affects our industry and realty asset class in ways not experienced before!

If you have personal commentary on the Great Reset scenario, reach me via gfa7156!aol.com

End Note.

1. Quotes in this posting are from a speech, by Michael Rectenwald, delivered at Hillsdale College on 7 November 2021, and published in the December issue of IMPRIMIS newsletter.

2. “…stakeholder capitalism involves the behavioral modification of corporations to benefit not shareholders, but stakeholders – individuals and groups that stand to benefit or lose from corporate behavior.” Hard not to think of pending landlord/tenant legislation relative to land lease communities nationwide….GFA

3. ESG. Three key factors measure the sustainability and ethical impact of an investment in a business or company. Here we have our first hint of how the Great Reset might influence and impact the manufactured housing industry; e.g. Governance criteria…how a firm polices itself, focusing on executive remuneration, political lobbying, board diversity and structure, as well as other variables. GFA

II,

PERSONAL POTPOURRI

Years (decades?) ago I penned a column for the now defunct ‘Journal’ (of manufactured housing) that occasionally featured a potpourri (‘mixture of anything’) collection of bon mots (‘pleasant remarks’) I collected when satisfying my voracious appetite for reading. Well, now that I’m pretty much retired, I’m finding such gems all over the place – even in long neglected files of newspaper clippings, etc… What follows here is your first opportunity to share in an eclectic reading experience.

Did you know? In white pages of older telephone directories, phonetic language was oft used to help patrons find desired listings. For many years, Indiana Bell (before it was dissolved) listed itself as the ‘Fone Company’, right before Mee Kiu Fong’s telephone listing in the directory.

Do you speak in front of audiences? Here’s what James Roosevelt’s father recommended to him: ‘Be sincere…Be brief…Be seated! And Alben W. Barkley suggests the best audience is one that is intelligent, well-educated, and a little drunk.

Ever hear the Mushroom Farm Lament? Well, here goes: “We feel we’re being kept in the dark. Occasionally someone comes around and spreads manure on us. When our heads pop up, they’re chopped off. And then we’re canned.” Quoted from Jim Lundy’s classic book, ‘Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way’, 1986.

Know someone in the industry or realty asset class who routinely angers, insults, and or torpedoes relationships in word or deed? Perhaps a T-shirt with this logo is appropriate:
MAY LIGHT FROM THE BRIDGES I’VE BURNED LIGHT MY WAY.

While reading the following short story, reflect on where it’s headed and who inspired it: “Call me Ishmael. Some years ago – never mind how long precisely – having little or no money in my purse, and nothing particular to interest me on shore, I thought I would sail about a little and see the watery part of the world. Hence I solemnly took to the ship in a blind effort to appease my drizzling soul. Unbeknownst to me was the fateful event this voyage would present. Having a shortage of fresh water, the men resigned themselves to not washing their hands after the moving of their bowels, causing a severe occurrence of stomach cramps and other unpleasant digestive symptoms. Perhaps if I had taken solace in the land, I would never have set foot on that cursed ship.” So, did you think of the author Herman Melville and his classic ‘Moby Dick’? Believe it or not, this reading material was prepared, years ago, and posted in rest area bathrooms along Allegheny County highways in Pennsylvania.

OK, let’s end this week’s post with this quote: ‘Old Age and Treachery will overcome Youth and Skill’ – or so read the T-shirt I wore awhile back.

Next week’s blog? Expect to read ‘A Short Course in Human Relations’, ‘Dr. Strangelove in Vietnam’ (all about the presence of nuclear weapons nearby at the time). For those of you who’ve read my autobiography, you know I was trained as an Atomic Demolitions Munitions technician (a.k.a. suicide bomber), to be activated in the event the North Vietnam Army crossed in mass over into South Vietnam.*1 and ‘How to Eat Crawdads’.

End Note.

1. ‘From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven’ autobiography available via www.educatemhc.com



George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMHC


January 6, 2022

2022 TO APE 2021 OR BE BETTER?

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 9:33 am

Blog Posting # 672 @ 7 January 2022: EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource & textbook source for land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 888-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and/or visit www.educatemhc.com Previous phone #s no longer connected.

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: to promote HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Be MHM certified!

INTRODUCTION: Thanks for your input of late, helping me decide how to pen future postings of this blog. More suggestions and ideas? Let me know via gfa7156@aol.com

I.

2022 TO APE 2021 OR BE BETTER?

Were you one of hundreds to recently receive my ‘Expression of Appreciation & Look Forward into Year 2022’? If not, you’ll want to read the following four paragraphs to learn how our industry appears to have ended year 2021; what 2022 ‘looks like already’; and, why I’m not bullish on the land lease community real estate asset class. Here goes….

“How will year 2021 end relative to new HUD-Code housing shipments? Even though we shipped fewer new HUD-Code homes during November 2021 @ 9,069 compared to previous month of October @ 9,254*1. To date (i.e. end of November), we’ve already shipped more new homes @ 97,758 than during previous 15 years, going back to 2006 @ 117,510. But will December’s shipment total be enough to eclipse the 2006 year-end number? At this point we need only 19,752 homes shipped to do so! Hence, the speculative answer is ‘yes’! In any event, we’ll be back above the 100,000/year target total. BUT, how long will we enjoy that momentum – or will we grow – or slip backwards again?”

“2022? While we’re ‘on a roll’ shipment-wise right now, future performance depends on resolution of alleged supply chain issues, controlling arbitrary price increases by housing manufacturers, and if/when we finally bring reason and resolution to our perennial chattel capital (i.e. home-only) financing challenges. After all, it’s been 13+/- years since we lost easy access to this type financing, e.g. 1998 = 372,943 new homes shipped, compared to 2009 and only 48,789 new homes shipped during the latter year – our industry’s nadir year.”

“I want to be bullish about the land lease community sector of the manufactured housing industry, but am not! Why? In my opinion, ‘consolidation’ of sole proprietor-owned communities into one or another of 500+/- property portfolios has generally run amuck. Property sale prices, for the most part, are driven by greed (on the part of ‘sellers’), and willingness, on the part of ‘buyers’ to greatly increase site rents following ‘closing’. At the very least, we’ve seen the rise of tenant activism on a near national scale; something we’ve not dealt with before. And how are we going to convince prospective homebuyers/site lessees to buy new homes within land lease communities when site rent is no longer a third, but fully half the amount – or more, they’d pay for a conventional, non-subsidized 3BR2B apartment unit in the same local housing market? I fear we may well see a ‘shaking out’ among hedge fund investors who’ve entered the realty asset class during the past five years.”

“So, where do we go from here? Again personally, I yearn for far more effective national advocacy than we suffer now! At the very least, a salaried executive at the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’) and its’ National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division should be solely-tasked with day to day administration and representation of land lease communities nationwide – just like it used to be, from January 1996 to pre-2010. In addition, endorse professional property management among on-site and regional managers by insisting on ‘education & certification’ in a meaningful manner! This by dint of Accredited Resident Manager (‘ARM’) and Certified Property Manager (‘CPM’) member programs via the Institute of Real Estate Management (‘IREM’), OR some other credible in-person (NOT online) training program! This obvious professional property management shortfall continues to be the Achilles’ heel of land lease community management and ownership nationwide.”*2

End Notes.

1. The new HUD-Code housing shipment totals as reported by the Institute of Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’), HUD, MHARR, and EducateMHC.

2. You serious about providing the property management tools on-site and regional managers need to do their jobs right? Every property should have a copy of ‘Community Operations in the Manufactured Housing Industry’ – available via www.educatemhc.com

DID YOU KNOW?

Biloxi Manufactured Housing Show to be held from Monday, 28 March, through Thursday, 31 March, at the IP Casino Resort and Spa in Biloxi, Mississippi. This trade show is successor to the popular Tunica, Mississippi MHShow. For more information: www.biloxihomeshow.com

MHI’s Congress & Expo is scheduled for Monday, 11 April thru Thursday, 14 April, at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort. For more information: www.manufacturedhousing.org

Stephen Braun, co-CEO, has retired from Hometown America. For corporate contacts, email either Ken Kravenas via KKKRavenas@HometownAmerica.net for operations-related matters; or Greg Lynch via GLynch@HometownAmerica.net for all other matters. Stephen’s leaving has been so quiet, it reminds me of when Barry McCabe, another Hometown alum, faded from the scene a decade ago. Hometown America was founded by Randy Rowe (presently head of Green Courte Partners) in 1997, and today owns 66 land lease communities in a dozen states – including the well-known SaddleBrook Farms in Grayslake, IL.

You a fan of the popular TV show series NCIS? I am, and one of my Christmas stocking presents from Carolyn was a copy of the magazine GIBBS FOREVER. Best part? Finally, I have a complete list of what show fans know as Gibbs’ Rules. There’re 34 of them in all. A few gems appear to apply to the business world: #3 Never be unreachable. #5 You don’t waste good. #11 When the job is done, walk away. #15 Always work as a team. #18 It’s better to seek forgiveness than ask permission. #28 When you need help, ask. #51 Sometimes you’re wrong. And a personal favorite = #23. Never mess with a Marine’s coffee if you want to live!

I’m old enough to remember the influence and death of social and political activist Saul Alinsky in mid-1972. He authored ‘Rules for Radicals, Reveille for Radicals’ – a simplification of Vladimir Lenin’s original scheme for world conquest by communism, under Russian rule. He wrote there are eight levels of control that must be achieved before one is able to create a (new) social state. They are:

1. Healthcare. Control healthcare and you control the people (Pandemic anyone?)

2. Poverty. Increase the poverty level as high as possible; poor people are easier to control and will not fight back if you are providing everything for them to live (Think illegal immigrants)

3. Debt. Increase the debt to an unsustainable level. That way one is able to increase taxes, and this will produce more poverty. (Present national debt level sustainable?)

4. Gun Control. Remove the ability of citizens to defend themselves from the Government. That way one is able to create a police state. (Gotta love the second amendment!)

5. Welfare. Take control of every aspect of citizens’ lives (Food, Housing, & Income)

6. Education. Take control of what people read and listen to – take control of what children learn in school. (Errant social media platforms, Critical Race Theory, etc.)

7. Religion. Remove belief in God from the government and schools. (No prayer in schools)

8. Class Warfare. Divide the people into the wealthy and the poor. This will cause more discontent and it will be easier to tax the wealthy with the support of the poor.

Well, there you have it, a veritable blueprint on how to convert a democracy (republic) into a totalitarian state. Now that you know how it’s done, do your part to prevent it from happening!

George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMHC

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