George Allen / EducateMHC Blog Mobile Home & Land Lease Community Advocate & Expert

July 19, 2022

Potpourri of Important MH-related Topics

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 6:36 am

Blog Posting # 698. Copyright @ 19 July 2022. EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!
EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource, textbook supplier for land lease communities throughout North America!
To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 881-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and or visit www.educatemhc.com

INTRODUCTION: This time around, a veritable potpourri of important MH-related topics.

First and foremost, of most newsworthy and greatest importance, is the public announcement, on 18 July 2022, in Clayton Built News; that the firm is adjusting their base pricing DOWN mid-month July, so as to “pass these savings on to our customers.” The key question now is, who among the other HUD-Code housing manufacturers will follow suit and reduce their base pricing yet this month? They all know what’s happening at Clayton Home Building Group. So, let’s watch and see what the other two of the Big 3-C firms do, along with everyone else!

Next topic. I’ve waited more than 45 years for this to happen – and now it has! What? Soft-opening of the new, huge manufactured housing (‘MH’) exhibit hall at the RV/MH Hall of Fame in Elkhart, IN. Was in Elkhart last week (12-14 July) as part of a 16 person ‘working committee’ tasked with recommending final adjustments to this long-awaited showcase of our product and its’ 70+ year history! Won’t tell you the details here – you need to travel to Elkhart to see it firsthand. But I’ll tell you this much; the static displays are more impressive than the much vaunted ones in the RV exhibit hall. Seriously. And, the icing on the cake, so to speak, is the emphasis on importance of land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’) on the history of our industry and realty asset class. First official day open to the public? 15 August 2022.

Speaking of 15 August 2022. You should already be well aware this is the date of the induction of the Class of 2022 into the prestigious RV/MH Hall of Fame! Hosts are already expecting in excess of 600 industry pioneers, leaders, executives, and family members. To purchase a ticket, simply phone (574) 293-2344 or visit the website: rvmhhalloffame.org If you’ve never been to the RV/MH Hall of Fame, this year is the ideal time to go. Why? The facility has never looked better. It is HUGE, considering recent addition of the new free-standing RV meeting facility, mega parking lot, and of course the new MH exhibit hall. And if you have hopes of being recommended and selected for induction into the Hall of Fame, go ahead of time, to ‘get the lay of the land’ and meet folk you need to know! Also, while there, visit the upstairs library to see the addition of the George Allen library (largest collection of land lease community texts available anywhere in the world). And buy books in the downstairs bookstore.

Seems to me we have a donnybrook (‘free-for-all, public altercation’) occurring between MHI and MHARR, though most of the diatribe (‘bitter & abusive denunciation’) is coming from the latter industry advocate.*1 This appears to be in regards to “…MHI’s recent proposal and plan of action…opposing the U.S. Department of Energy’s (‘DOE’) final manufactured housing energy rule.”*2 Danny Ghorbani, former president & CEO of MHARR, in a recent question & answer piece, tells us, “The DOE final manufactured housing energy rule…published on 31 May 2022, and enforced on 31 May 2023, is a very complex energy regulation resulting from the manufactured housing energy provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (‘EISA’).” Possible consequence? “That DOE rule… (will) potentially wipe-out nearly 80% (of the) production of our industry’s most affordable models.”*3 In the meantime, MHI has called on its’ members (700+ have responded to date) to contact their House Representatives to cosponsor H.R. 7651, ‘The Manufactured Housing Affordability and Energy Efficiency Act’ (Alluded to earlier). So, what’s the donnybrook? MHARR appears to feel the Act is, ‘too little too late’, hence ineffective. Only time and effort will tell. But in the meantime, it’d help matters if MHARR would stop criticizing what they view as MHI’s past “…mistakes during the rulemaking process….”(*2), and focus on stopping the rule’s proponents and DOE allies from putting “…their collective foot in the door (of) their larger targets (i.e. THE GREATER HOUSING & BUILDIING INDUSTRIES).” (*2) (Emphasis added. GFA). Are they on board with passage of H.R. 7651? Bottom line. Stop the damn bickering and work together, as you did during the late 1990s, to effect passage of The Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000.

End Notes.
1. MHARR & MHI. Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform & Manufactured Housing Institute.
2. Quoted from MHPRONEWS dated 27 June 2022.
3. No statistical evidence or calculations to this end are provided.

George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMHC



July 8, 2022

WHAT NO ONE ELSE IN ‘MH’ WILL TELL YOU

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 8:39 am

Blog Posting # 697. Copyright @ 8 July 2022. EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource, textbook supplier for land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 881-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and or visit www.educatemhc.com Previous phone #s no longer connected.

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: to promote HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable, attainable housing! Be MHM certified!

INTRODUCTION: I am grateful that, as an industry, we have MHInsider magazine to keep us informed; even more grateful for Kurt Kelley’s online Manufactured Housing Review for publishing writers we’d never read otherwise. Which brings me to wonder, who and how many MH industry folk, and land lease community owners/operators, appreciate the specialized information I bring to you, via this blog posting, each week? It stuns me to realize, what I pen monthly, about the ‘accurate’ MH shipment total, along with stock market performances among our ten public companies, is available nowhere else!


I.

WHAT NO ONE ELSE IN ‘MH’ WILL TELL YOU

Yes, it’s that time of month again, when we 1) look back to see how many new manufactured homes were shipped during the month of May 2022 (This is not as simple as it sounds!); and, 2) what the stock market prices were for ten public ‘MH’ companies on 5 July 2022. (No one else tells you this!)

In the first instance, the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’ = HUD’s official scorekeeper for the ‘MH’ industry), reported 10,451 new homes shipped nationwide during May, this ‘up’ from 10,165 new homes shipped during April, and ‘way up’ from 8,606 new homes shipped during May 2021, a year earlier!

What does this translate into ‘year to date’ (‘YTD’) shipments? That’s 50,286 for the first five months of this year; up 5,957 new homes from the YTD May 2021 level! So, we’re on track, at the present time, to surpass the 105,772 new homes shipped during all of year 2021.

How ‘bout value? Well, since we continue to use MHI’s Dr. Stephen C. Cooke’s production value factor from a decade ago, it pencils out this way: At $43,126 ‘production value’ per new MH, X 10,451 new homes shipped during May 2022, that total production value is $450,000,000. And the YTD ‘production value’ total is approximately $2,169,000,000. Keep in mind, however, the wholesale and retail values of these homes is considerably higher than the $43,126 just cited. No question about it, we need an updated ‘production value’ factor now! Anyone at MHI paying attention?

In the second instance, among ten public MH and land lease community portfolio firms, all their stock prices on 5 July 2022 have declined from the month before, 3 June 2022. That’s pretty much in line with stock market negative performance of late. Specifically,

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (including Clayton Homes) is approximately $410,000 per share.
Skyline Champion Corporation is at $51.12; down from $54.38 the month before
Cavco Industries, Inc. is at $206.30; down from $221 the month before
Legacy Housing Corporation is at $13.29; down from $16 the month before
Nobility Homes is at $28.00; down from $30.50 the month before
Equity Lifestyle, #1 on the last ALLEN REPORT, is at $70.97; down from $78.00 the month before
Sun Communities, #2 on last ALLEN REPORT, is at $159.34; down from $167 the month before
UMH Properties, # 6 on last ALLEN RPEORT, is at $17.96; down from $20.05 the month before
Flagship Communities, #23 on ALLEN REPORT, is at $15.21; down from $17.30 month before
MHPC, Inc., #28 on last ALLEN REPORT, is at $1.85; down from $2.60 the month before

And did you know there’s a measurement known as the MH/land lease community Composite Stock Index or CSI? Well, there is, and it dropped to $664.04 on 5 July, down from the previous month (3 June) at $703.83

Now, amidst all this, there’s a serious conundrum (‘a riddle; a hard question’) afoot in the manufactured housing industry today, and it goes like this:

How can the sole national trade entity, claiming to represent all sectors of the manufactured housing industry, continue to be guilty of the following:

• Routinely publishing, to members and others, a monthly HUD-Code housing shipment level different from total published by IBTS – and reported similarly (in the latter instance) by HUD, MHARR, and EducateMHC. This clearly belies a divided industry, one incapable of simple unity, even where basic performance statistics are concerned! Why does this happen? My guess is the three dominant manufacturers demand it this way.

• NOT publishing monthly stock market prices among ten public firms, five as HUD-Code housing manufacturers, and five as land lease community portfolio owners/operators. It only makes sense, that folk ‘within & outside’ the industry and realty asset class, should rely on this national trade entity for this information as well. Why does this not happen? Again, my guess is the three dominant manufacturers are not anxious for us to see….

• Severely under-represent an estimated 50,000 land lease communities nationwide, especially during this time of turmoil, effected by irresponsible investors who over-pay for property acquisitions, and soon thereafter, raise rents and add new tenant fees. There are simple ways to address this matter but leadership appears reluctant to do so. Why? Here to, self-interest may well play a role in not rocking the business boat.

These are just three perennial shortfalls that continue to hobble the manufactured housing industry overall, amidst ongoing criticism from several corners. The most recent quasi-public effort to right these wrongs (i.e. under-representation and weak advocacy) has called for the formation of a new national trade entity to truly represent the needs of all sectors of the manufactured housing industry – with exception of HUD-Code manufacturers who’re already in control. Status of that effort to date? These critics (an association, online press, & others) have been publicly challenged to PUT UP or SHUT UP by 15 August 2022. Specifically, PUT UP an effort to form said new national entity by then; or, once and for all, SHUT UP about the matter until a capable, experienced, motivated organizer steps forward to lead the industry and asset class to unity and renewed prosperity!

The significance of 15 August? First off; that day, more than 500 leaders and executives of the RV & MH industries will gather at the RV/MH Heritage Foundation, in Elkhart, IN., for its’ annual induction banquet, welcoming ten individuals into the prestigious Hall of Fame. Second; what better place or time (the day before or after) to begin planning a new era for manufactured housing and land lease communities, than at the very location where previous national challenges have been met and resolved (e.g. On 2/27/2009 more than 100 MH execs met and agreed to design a Community Series Home or CSH, for siting within land lease communities). Point? There’ve been NO attempts to date, to getting a post-production organization off the ground. So, expect on or about 15 August, heretofore critics and naysayers will be again challenged to SHUT UP!

So, what happens after 15 August, if there’s no challenge to the present national status quo? Your guess is as good as mine. I wonder….

George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMH

July 1, 2022

FOURTHS OF JULY, 50 & 200 YEARS AGO

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 8:22 am

Blog Posting # 696. Copyright @ 1 July 2022. EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource, textbook supplier for land lease communities throughout North America

To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 881-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and or visit www.educaemhc.com Previous phone #s no longer connected.

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: to promote HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable, attainable housing! Me MHM certified!

INTRODUCTION: This is my 4th of July patriotic gift to you; a personal recollection of spending the 4th of July in a combat zone 54 years ago. Please save and share this story with friends, family members, and acquaintances. GFA

FOURTHS OF JULY, 50 & 200 YEARS AGO

On the fourth of July, 1968, my combat engineer platoon worked and lived at landing zone Stud, later renamed Vandegrift forward combat base. Stud was located a few miles east of the infamous, only recently vacated Khe Sanh combat base of Vietnam lore.

The day was like any other, for a combat engineer platoon. During daylight hours we cleared roads of landmines, built command bunkers, strengthened the perimeter defense, and helped wherever needed. All hot, dirty work, but what we were there to do.

That night also began like any other. At first, all was quiet and dark, no moon. Above ground light, even candlelight, was prohibited, lest it draw sniper fire from enemy troops in the hills surrounding our position. But around 3300 hours (10PM), someone popped a bright white star cluster pyrotechnic high into the black sky.

Usually, star cluster pyros are launched from hand-held devices – hollow aluminum tubes 2” in diameter X 12” long, to show helicopter pilots where one’s position is in darkness, identify medical evacuation pickup points, or where to drop needed supplies.

Well, that first star cluster burst was immediately followed by a whole bunch more of varied colors, accompanied by a host of M16 assault rifles fired on full automatic – adding combat sound effects to the cacophony, along with the distinct odor of burning cordite. Also launched skyward, a couple illumination flares, dangling from mini-parachutes, drifted high above the base, and out over suspected enemy positions. This continued for a few minutes, then stopped as abruptly as it had begun.

In military parlance, this chain of events is known as a ‘mad moment’, usually occurring gin training scenarios to familiarize Marines with the sights, sounds, and smells of combat. And ‘mad moments’ do occasionally occur in combat environs like these, to celebrate a holiday.

Yes, one might view ‘mad moments’ as a waste of ammunition and signaling resources, also compromising one’s position, but know what?

During that ‘mad moment’ on the fourth of July 1968, at LZ Stud, I envisioned standing next to Francis Scott Key, in 1818, watching the bombardment of Ft. McHenry, and him penning the poem which would later become our nation’s hallowed anthem, The Star Spangled Banner.

And today, 200 years later, 50+ for me since 1968, nary a 4th of July holiday occurs, without fondly, sometimes tearfully – but always gratefully, recalling being right there during a very special ‘mad moment’ in my life and that of our nation. God Bless America!

Lt. Col. George Allen, USMC, retired.




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