George Allen / EducateMHC Blog Mobile Home & Land Lease Community Advocate & Expert

October 9, 2024

The ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ Explanation

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 8:25 am

Blog Posting # 814; Copyright 11 October 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consultant and author of many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institutes (‘MHII’), a founding board member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, and MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist & editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

The ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ Explanation

What is the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’? What types of single-family residential housing are included in this new monthly comprehensive statistical survey? Well, here goes:

Offsite construction. This new housing category, a.k.a. factory-built housing, includes HUD-Code manufactured housing, modular & panelized (or ‘prefab’) housing, and Park Model recreational vehicles (‘RVs’).

(&) Single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’. This larger housing category has long been the all-inclusive measure of housing performance in the U.S., not including the offsite construction types just cited, except for HUD-Code manufactured housing sited on permanent foundations.

So, where does this housing data originate? The easiest to track is the number of single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’ researched and published monthly online by the U.S. Census Bureau. Visit: census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst/pdf

But offsite construction involves two different sources and a calculation.

HUD-Code manufactured housing monthly production is tracked by the Institute for building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) and sold to subscribers. Annual production totals? In the book SWAN SONG, dating back to 1955. Visit www.educatemhc.com

Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) housing monthly production. Since these units are built to local building codes and no one tacks either category, some housing professionals suggest the following formula: 2% of annualized monthly housing starts per U.S. Census Bureau , reduced to a monthly total, e.g. 1,150,000 X .02, divided by 12 months = 2500 ‘mods’ & panelized units.

Park Model RV production is tracked monthly by the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association and totals are published in RVIA’s online publication RVIA News. This category of offsite construction is included, as an increasing number of Park Model RVs are used as permanent housing, particularly in Sunbelt regions.

The Whole U.S. Housing Story for August 2024

Format for data that follows: First, the three categories of offsite construction, then a subtotal, followed by U.S. Census Bureau estimate of single-family site-built housing for August 2024. Finally, a grand total of all categories together, but with the number of modular & panelized units adjusted out, so as not to be counted twice.

  1. HUD-Code manufactured housing units in August:   9,501
  2. Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units in August:       2,260
  3. Park Model RVs in August                                             299
  4. Offsite construction subtotal in August                     12,060
  • Census Bureau # of housing starts in August      1,356,000
  • (+) Offsite construction subtotal in August             +12,060
  • Grand total of U.S. housing starts in August        1,368,060
  • (-) 2,260 Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units    1,365,800        

Bottom line ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ for August 2024? 1,365,800 new homes started! 

Mfd. Hsng. Shipment Volume @ August 2024

IBTS reports 9,501 HUD-Code homes produced during August 2024, up from 7,896 during the previous months, and up from 8,670 produced during August 2023. 14,968 floors produced.

Year to date (YTD) MH production thru August 2024 = 68,562; up from 58,692 during year 2023.

Production value? Based on decade+ old ‘per unit’ factor of $43,126; August 2024 production is valued at $409 million; and year to date national economic impact = $2.95 billion. This is a gross undervaluation of new HUD-Code manufactured housing production.  This ‘old factor’ needs to be reviewed, researched, and updated NOW! GFA

Stock Market Report on 4 October 2024

BRK-A              Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (Clayton Homes)   $687

SKY.                 Skyline Champion Corporation                      $92.93

CVCO               Cavco Industries, Inc.                                     $422.50

LEGH               Legacy Housing Corporation                          $26.54

NOBH              Nobility Homes                                               $35.26

ELS                   Equity Lifestyle, Inc.                                        $68.28

SUI                   Sun Communities, Inc.                                   $129.87

UMH               UMH Properties, Inc.                                      $19.03

TSC                  Flagship Communities, Inc.                            $15.06

MHPC              Mfd. Hsng. Properties, Inc.                             $.62

Manufactured housing/land lease community Composite Stock Index (‘CSI’) on 4 October = $811; down from $901 in September, yet above the base of $790.07 set in January 2022.

CSI does not include BRK-A.

FHFA’s new Manufactured House Price Index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, on 9 October 2024, released its new Manufactured Housing Price Index.

Simply put, ‘House price indexes for manufactured homes increased by 7.9 percent between second quarters of 2023 and 2024. They increased by 3.2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter.” And “In the second quarter of 2024, the median price of manufactured homes for sale was $231,000. This represents an increase of $1,000 from the second quarter of 2023.”

Does this median price seem a bit high to you? That’s likely because “The price indexes and median prices for manufactured homes are both based on data from real-property conventional mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.”

A Call for Comment & Recommendation…

So, what do you think of this new overview of all housing types produced and started in the U.S. during August 2024, along with a detailed summary of HUD-Code housing production and stock market prices for five public HUD-Code housing manufacturers and five land lease community property portfolio owners/operators? Plus information from a brand new FHFA manufactured house price index, released on 9 October 2024. Please let us know your thoughts and reactions via gfa7156@aol.com

George Allen

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