George Allen / EducateMHC Blog Mobile Home & Land Lease Community Advocate & Expert

 Blog Posting # 822; Copyright 6 December 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable –attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRE’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, from SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

HOUSING COST BURDENS CLIMB, STEADY OR WHAT?

According to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, on 3 December 2024, headlined: HOUSING COST BURDENS CLIMB TO RECORD LEVELS (AGAIN) IN 2023.  Now, that’s a full year ago, not today! The Press Release goes on to announce that: “Housing affordability worsened again last year, as a record number of US households were cost burdened. According to our tabulations of the newly released 2023 American Community Survey data, an all-time high 42.9 million households were cost burdened, meaning they spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs.”

“Additionally, 21.5 million households were severely cost burdened, devoting more than 50 percent of their income to housing, marking another all-time high.”

And this:  “Median monthly costs for homeowners increased 6 percent in 2023 to $1,327.00.”

Well, as disturbing as this information is, it does raise questions that go unanswered in the seven pages Press Release.

First off; what’s that ’30 percent’ all about? Well, it’s the commonly accepted and used Housing Expense Factor (‘HEF’) or standard. For more info see *1 below.

Second; just what are the ‘monthly costs of homeowners’? This report does not say! And looking online isn’t much help either. In 2008, when EducateMHC created the ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’ for estimating homebuyer’s reasonable ability to purchase ‘affordable’ & ‘risky’ new & resale homes of any type on realty owned fee simple or leased, we offered this bifurcated description of what’s included in the 30% annual Household Expense Factor or HEF. See *1.

Now here’s just an example of how skewed such ‘official studies’ can be at times. A middle-aged homeowner in the upper Midwest has lived in his home for 50 years and paid off his mortgage long ago. Today his monthly household expenses total $892, fully $439 less than the $1,327 featured in this report.*2

Or, looking at these figures from the Press Release perspective, this homeowner could pay a mortgage (i.e. principal & interest) not exceeding $439/month to remain below the referenced 30% HEF. Any monthly mortgage payment above that amount would put this homeowner into the 42.9 percent of Americans who’re ‘cost burdened’.

If you’re interested in obtaining the above-reference ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’ for your own purposes, purchase a copy of SWAN SONG from wwww.educatemhc.com  It’s located on pages 44 & 45, Appendix H. of the popular text.

End Notes.

1. 30% annual Household Expense Factor (‘HEF’) is either ‘loaded’ with loan principal, interest, taxes & insurance (i.e. PITI) and household utility expenses, not including telephone charges; or is ‘barebones’, allowing only for PI or PITI. The ‘loaded perspective ensures ‘affordability’, as household expenses are included in monthly payments, whereas ‘barebones’ perspective is ‘risky’, since household expenses still must be  paid, but now in addition to monthly amount set aside for PITI.

• What comprises this $892 figure? Monthly natural gas @ $118, electric @ $110, sewer @ $55, water @ $60, insurance @ $340 (household & vehicle), and property taxes @ $206.

‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ in next blog posting

That’s right, the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ relative to HUD-Code housing production for October 2024, and Stock Market Report for December 2024, is being compiled at this time.

George Allen

Blog Posting # 821; Copyright 29 November 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRE’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG,- a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmityAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NN’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

Important Announcement for Green Blazer Wearers

Huh? Green blazer wearers? That’s right.  More than 600 RV/MH Hall of Fame members (a.k.a. enshrinees & inductees) characteristically wear a bright green awards blazer (sports jacket) featuring the distinctive gold thread embroidered RV/MH Hall of Fame crest on the left breast pocket. Until recently, these blazers were rarely seen other than at annual hall of fame induction banquets during early August, in Elkhart, IN.

However, this year (2025) starts off differently! A national call, beginning with this blog posting and announcements in other MH trade publications, is going out now, asking RV/MH Hall of Fame members, enshrinees and inductees to wear their coveted green blazer the first day of the Louisville MH Show, and during that evening’s festivities, on 15 January 2025.

This is not all that unusual a request. For the past couple years, some state associations have encouraged their members to wear the celebrated blazer at local formal MH business and social functions, as a way of promoting the RV/MH Hall of Fame as showcase and protector of manufactured housing and recreational vehicle history and legacies. To learn more about the RV/MH Hall of Fame, and how to qualify for induction into this prestigious body, visit their website at www.rvmhhalloffame.org

Looking for Presidential Elections Votes

It all started with this inquiring quote from the 11/24/24 issue (p.35) of The New York Times magazine: “Tell me how Joe Biden could get 81 million votes” (in the 2020 election). The 2024 presidential election had been over for two weeks, and this – to me anyway – came across as what one might call a ‘pregnant question’, one looking for maybe a clarifying answer. So I started looking….

First stop. Research the popular vote spreads of both (2020 & 2024) presidential elections. Well, here’s what I found:

In 2020, Biden won with 81,268,967 popular votes to Trump’s 74, 216,747 votes

In 2024, Trump won with 76,842,136 popular votes to Harris’s 74,341,051 votes

Since the losers in both elections are separated by only 124,304 votes, how does one explain the large 4,426,831 vote spread between the winners of those two elections, especially when the 2024 election is widely touted as being a landslide victory, with the victor’s party now in control of all three branches of the federal government.

It’s hard to believe 4,426,831 American voters who participated in the 2020 election did not also vote in the 2024 contest.

All of which takes us back to that pregnant question in The New York Times magazine: “Tell me how Joe Biden could get 81 million votes.” The answer to that question continues to linger.

Blog Posting # 820; Copyright 15 November 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities 9a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CREs’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and  SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fameenshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S> Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

Two-Thirds of U.S. Households are Family Households

From the U.S. Census Bureau (11/12/2024): “Newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s historical America’s Families and Living Arrangements tables show that about 64% of households were classified as family households in 2024. This marks a significant change from 50 years ago, when 79% of households were family households. Family households are defined as those that include at least one person related to the householder by birth, marriage or adoption.”

Furthermore, “In 2024, almost three-quarters (74%) of family households were married-couple households. Family households that did not include a married couple were more likely to have a female householder (68%) than male householder (32%). Among nonfamily households, about 52% included a female householder, while 48% had a male householder. A substantial portion of nonfamily households were homes with someone living alone – 81% in 2024, compared with 89% 50 years ago.”

What’s Next for the Mainstream Media?

The 2024 Presidential Election is over and everyone knows the stunning result: a landslide reelection of Donald Trump to the office of 47^th president of the US of A, along with Republican majorities in the Senate and Congress; a.k.a. ‘A mandate to govern’ via much-needed changes to policies and personnel characteristic of the past four years. Making America Great Again has already begun!

But what does this mean to the so-called mainstream or legacy news media, now in many if not most circles, referred to as the biased and false news media. Will they continue their perennial assault against ‘all things Trump’, relative to fictional Russian collusion, inaccurate abortion legislation claims, and misleading reporting of upcoming policy improvements? Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

The Media Research Center reports that ‘trust in political and civic institutions is highest for local and state government, lowest for the media and Congress.’ If true, the national press corps has a very tall hill to climb, to shed itself of a pervasive fake news reputation and obvious political bias. Do they even want to return to the tenets of professional journalism?

And what is professional journalism? Best described in terms of three key characteristics:

• Reporting of the facts
• Checking of resources
• Be understood via a plain writing style

Yes, if today’s tarnished press would simply return to the basics just described, as a society, we’d be a long way towards resurrecting news media credibility, and in time, profitability. But will it happen? That’s anyone’s guess at this point in time.

A Sobering Word to My Middle-age Friends

If you are anywhere near 50 years of age, the following passage is for you! It’s quoted from Susan Orlean’s novel, ‘The Library Book’, published in 2018.

“The idea of being forgotten is terrifying. I fear not just that I, personally, will be forgotten, but that we are all doomed to being forgotten – that the sum of life is ultimately nothing; that we experience joy and disappointment and aches and delights and loss, make our little mark on the world, and then we vanish, and the mark is erased, and it is as if we never existed. If you gave into that bleakness even for a moment, the sum of life becomes null and void, because if nothing lasts, nothing matters. It means everything we experience unfolds without a pattern, and life is just a wild, random, baffling occurrence, a scattering of notes with no melody. But if something you learn or observe or imagine can be set down and saved, and you can see our life reflected in previous lives, and can imagine it reflected in subsequent ones, you can begin to discover order and harmony. You know you are a part of a larger story that has shape and purpose – a tangible, familiar past and a constantly refreshed future. We are all whispering in a tin can on a string, but we are heard, as we whisper the message into the next tin can and the next string. Writing a book, just like building a library, is an act of sheer defiance. It is a declaration you believe in the persistence of memory. P.93

I understood the truth of this paragraph when I realized on how very little I knew of past lives in my own family. I have a great grandfather who served in the Civil War, and is buried in Bridgeton, NJ. I’ve visited his grave, but I know nothing more about his life at that time. In turn I realized that if I didn’t write down my experiences during the Vietnam War, my children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren would know no more about me than I do about Charles Allen. So, I authored  ‘From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven’, my autobiography, and now copies are in the hands of our adult children, six grandchildren, and three (soon to be four) great grandchildren. Now I know my story will live on.

I’ve also come to realize the truth of Orlean’s paragraph relative to deceased friends in the manufactured housing business, especially past owners/operators of land lease communities. Because I was a consultant to many of them, I know interesting things about their life stories; but because they did not document those adventures, I remain the only person who can tell their stories during casual times with their peers and families. And that does happen from time to time. Examples. Whose family real estate holdings extend all the way back to the Revolutionary War? Who raised ostriches on his farmland in Florida? Who was a bagman for the Chicago mob and was allegedly executed by them? Whose corporate goal was to make his portfolio of communities the Holiday Inn chain of manufactured housing? And the tales go on.

Need more encouragement to this end? Well, here’s yet another quote – this time from Joel Dicker’s mystery novel ‘The Enigma of Room 622. “Life is a novel whose conclusion we already know: in the end, the hero dies. The most important thing is not how our story ends, but how we fill the pages. For life, like a novel, must be an adventure. And adventures are life’s vocations.” So, when will you tell your life’s adventure?

For help to this end, I recommend you buy a copy of Dan Poynter’s ‘Self-Publishing Manual’, available via amazon.com  This handy HOW TO text of 450 pages has undergone at least “16 revised editions and 20 printings in 29 years.” It guided my efforts when penning my first book, ‘Mobile Home Park Management’ way back in 1988 (Yes, that’s 36 years ago). The beauty of this book? Poynter has the reader follow two timelines throughout his book: one ‘splaining’ how to write one’s life story via outline, etc.; the other, for getting front and back material ready in time to ‘go to press’ the same time as the manuscript. An important pairing. And I’ll kid you not, writing a readable book is no easy task, it’s a lot of hard work over an extended period of time, usually the minimum of a year. If you’re going to market your tome to friends, family, acquaintances and beyond, then also acquire a copy of John Kremer’s ‘1001 Ways to market Your Book’. It taught me many things, e.g. put a phone number or email address in one’s Preface so readers can comment on the book they just read, and put a customized post card into every book sold, offering other titles or your professional services to the reader, and more.

Hopefully you’re now motivated to at least explore the possibility of researching and recording your life’s story. A final thought. One well known country singer, in one of his songs, tells us, “Our legacy is those we leave behind” – our spouse, children, and following generations. Will you be satisfied with that legacy? Most folk are. However, if you have a unique, even adventuresome story to tell, then why not ‘live on for decades to come’ as your legacy story is passed down from generation to generation. Think about it!

If you want to talk further about this matter, reach me via gfa7156@aol.com

George Allen

Blog Posting # 818; Copyright 8 November 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CREs’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community owner ship, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (“MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

VETERANS DAY, 11 November 2024

Three times annually, I purposely pause and reflect on the sober meanings of Vietnam Veterans Day, 28 March; Memorial Day in late May; and Veterans Day on 11 November this year. I pause and reflect, remembering those who’ve made ‘the ultimate sacrifice’ in behalf of you, me, and our nation! I also think upon the many military servicemen and women I’ve known since my enlistment in March 1964, often reaching out to some of them to say ‘Thank You’. Do you?

Here I’d like to share with you, the true but little known history of Samuel Whittemore, Jr. of Charlestown, Massachusetts. He was born in 1696 and died in 1793. As a young man he was involved in the capture of the French Fortress of Louisbourg. Some sources claim he also fought in the French and Indian War of 1754-63.

Subsequently, during April 1775, as British forces returned to Boston from Battles of Lexington and Concord, they were continually fired upon by American militiamen. At this time Whittemore, who was 79 years of age, was working in his fields, when he observed a British relief brigade coming to assist in the retreat. Whittemore, with his one shot musket, and from behind a stone wall, ambushed the British grenadiers, killing one. Then drawing his dueling pistols, killed a second grenadier and mortally wounded a third. By then the British detachment reached his position, where Whittemore drew his sword and attacked. He was subsequently shot in the face, bayoneted many times, and left for dead. Soon thereafter he was found by colonial forces, attempting to reload his musket. Whittemore was taken to a local doctor who held no hope for his survival. However, Whittemore revived and lived another 18 years, finally dying of natural causes at the age of 96 years.

Now there’s someone who gave more than his fair share of time, health and life to being an American patriot, and yes, veteran.

Rest of the story? “In 2005, Massachusetts Senator Robert Havern III proposed Whittemore be proclaimed the official state hero of Massachusetts, and his memory be commemorated on 3 February each year.” Wikipedia

STEALING HOME

Here’s something for you to read and ponder. During September 2024 MHAction (a.k.a. Manufactured Housing Action) prepared ‘Stealing Home’, subtitled (How) ‘Out-of-state Private Equity Executives Spend Lavishly to Thwart Reforms and Make It Easier to Take (a specific state) Mobile Homes’.

The next paragraph is a paraphrase of the Executive Summary introducing this STEALING HOME report. The specific state has been omitted, as this  alleged landlord-tenant offenses appear to be occurring in several regions of the U.S. today. And contemporary manufactured housing trade terminology replaces inaccurate extinct renderings. Here’s where to read and ponder!

‘The state has a clear choice – to support hundreds of thousands of homeowners/site lessees live in land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities) OR the private equity firms, hedge funds, and corporations harming them and their communities. In land lease communities, residents often own their homes and rent the property on which they are installed. Most of these homes cannot be moved (i.e. lack of wheels & axles, no similar properties nearby, and high cost of moving to include tear-down and set-up), making residents vulnerable to the practices of corporate owners who often raise rents and add on fees while disinvesting in the property, leading to water quality problems, sewer issues, dangerous roads, residents losing their homes, and more.’

Elsewhere in this STEALING HOME report, mention is made of landlords sending “…seniors’ modest Social Security income to out-of-state and overseas investors.” This being in reference to rental homesite fees, and likely, overseas investors like China – where at least one large property portfolio owner/operator is concerned. Mention is also made of how this state of affairs only increases “an acute housing shortage’ in the state” and “undermines the state’’ push to create more affordable housing.”

So, how are matters like this in your state – if even a challenge, to begin with? My fear is that if our elected and salaried national manufactured housing trade advocacy leaders don’t get busy researching and addressing this sort of (now public) issue, we’ll soon see onerous, business-restricting landlord-tenant legislation like never seen before!

Now you cannot say I didn’t warn you!  GFA

SECO’s MH2X Community Infill & Upgrade Workshop

November 20 & 21, 2024, at the Country Inn & Suites in Atlanta, GA. For more information and to register, visit secoconference.com

This workshop is the product of land lease community owners/operators whose goal is to see the production of new manufactured homes double during year 2025. How? Land lease community ‘players’ to buy and sell many more new homes to fill vacant rental homesites and upgrade their properties. YOU interested in doing this? Then send key on-site property personnel to this workshop, even attend yourself, and get motivated to be a key manufactured housing ‘difference maker’ in 2025!

George Allen

Blog Posting # 819; Copyright 5 November 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CREs’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC visa (317) 881-3815; email gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhs.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

Introduction to the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’

Remember, this monthly (‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’) report continues to be a ‘work in progress’. While I’ve been working on the outline and content for six months, only now do I feel close to articulating an easy to read, understand, and apply format.

As I asked rhetorically last month (i.e. in blog # 814), ‘What is the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’?’ And what types of single-family residential housing are included in this NEW comprehensive monthly statistical survey? Well, here goes:

The ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ is intended to be a monthly collection and summary of ALL types of ‘housing starts’ throughout the U.S. Present-day reports include only ‘single-family, site-built housing starts’! Other forms of housing, like HUD-Code manufactured housing, modular & panelized housing, and Park Model RVs are not included, but should be, for complete picture!

So, let’s begin with ‘offsite construction’. This is a relatively new housing category, a.k.a. factory-built housing that includes 1) HUD-Code manufactured housing, 2) modular & panelized (or ‘prefab’) housing, and 3) Park Model recreational vehicles (‘RVs’). In time, ‘offsite construction’ might come to include additional types of ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units), e.g. Tiny Houses, sophisticated ‘sheds’, customized steel storage containers, even 3-D Printer-produced houses.

Then there’s the market dominating single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’. This far larger housing category has long been the sole and all-inclusive measure of housing performance in the U.S., but generally not including offsite construction (i.e. except for HUD-Code housing on permanent foundations).

So, where does monthly housing ‘start’ data originate? The easiest to track, is the number of single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’ researched and published monthly online by the U.S, Census Bureau. Visit census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst/pdf Once there, visit the Monthly New Residential Construction website, and you’ll see ‘seasonally adjusted annual’ totals. Divide the monthly ‘start’ total (actually seasonally-adjusted annual ‘start’ total) by 12 months to get a clean monthly ‘start’ figure. Details to follow.

Now to research the offsite construction category of housing. This involves three sources and a calculation.

HUD-Code manufactured housing monthly production is tracked and reported, to subscribers, by the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’). While monthly data is what we need for the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’, annual MH production totals are compiled and reported, differently, by the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’) and the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (‘MHARR’). A published record of these annual MH producton totals, going back to 1955, is available in the SWAN SONG text, available via www.educatemhc.com

Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) housing monthly production is, at this time, tracked by no one! Why? These offsite construction units are built to local building codes and are next to impossible to research accurately. Some housing professionals, however, suggest this formula: 2% of seasonally-adjusted annual housing starts, per U.S. Census Bureau, reduced to a monthly average, e.g. 112,833 X .02. divided by 12 (months) = 2256+/- modular & panelized units.

Park Model RV production is tracked monthly and reported by the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association (‘RVIA’) via their online publication RVIA News – or simply google Park Model RV production. This category of offsite construction is included, as an increasing number of Park Model RVs, are used as permanent housing, particularly in Sunbelt regions.

Now for the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ proper.

Format. First, the three categories of offsite construction and a subtotal of same, followed by U.S. Census Bureau estimate of single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’ for September 2024. Finally, a grand total of all categories together, but with the number of estimated number of modular & panelized units adjusted out, so as not to be counted twice.

1. HUD-Code manufactured housing produced in September 2024:                8814
2. Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units estimated for September 2024          2256
3. Park Model RVs produced during September 2024                                       294
4. Offsite Construction subtotal for September 2024                                   11,364
5. Census Bureau # of housing ‘starts’ during September 2024                  112,833 *1
6. (+) Offsite Construction subtotal for September 2024                             +11,364
7. Grand total of all U.S. Housing Starts during September 2024                 124,197
8. (-) 2256 Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units in September 2024   =      121,941

Bottom Line: ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ for September 2024 is 121,941 new homes started. This compares favorably with the five year average of annual new housing starts in the U.S., at 1,448,620 units (five year average), which divided by 12 months = 120,718/month, just 1,223 units fewer than the 121,941 started during September 2024. This difference would begreaterif the 11,365 offsite construction units were not included, as they are, in the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’.

End Note.

1. 1,354,000 X .02 divided by 12 = 112,833

Mfd. Hsng. Production Volume @ September 2024

IBTS reports 8,814 new HUD-Code homes produced during September 2024, down from 9,501 units produced during August 2024, but more than the 7,965 MHs produced during August 2023.  And 13,784 floors were shipped during September 2024.

Year to date (‘YTD’) production? As of September 2024 = 77,376 new units produced compared to September 2023 & 66,647 new HUD-Code homes produced.

Value? Again, based on the decades old ‘per unit’ factor of $43,126/unit, September 2024 production is valued at $380 million; and, YTD at $3.36 billion. Once again, this is a gross undervaluation of new HUD-Code manufactured housing production! Imagine what our industry’s economic contribution would be to the national economy if we calculated more than  production value, and included land lease community value factors as well

Stock Market Report for 5 November 2024

BRK-A              Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (Clayton Homes)   $662                Down from Oct

SKY                  Skyline Champion Corporation                      $91.25             down from Oct

CVCO               Cavco Industries                                             $451.24           Up from Oct

LEGH               Legacy Housing Corporation                          $25.58             Down from Oct

NOBH              Nobility Homes                                               $31.00             Down from Oct

ELS, Inc.           Equity Lifestyle                                               $69.34             Down from Oct

SUI, Inc.           Sun Communities                                           $130.96           Up from Oct

UMH, Inc.        UMH Properties                                             $18.42             Down from Oct

Flagship Communities                                                            $20.09             Up from Oct

MHPC, Inc.      Manufactured Housing Properties                $.62                 No change

Manufactured Housing/land lease community Composite Stock Index (‘CSI’) @ 5 November 2024 = $838, up from 811 in October, well above the base $790 established in January 2022.

FHFA’s Manufactured House Price Index

Last month this blog announced the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (‘FHFA’) new Manufactured Housing Price Index or MHPI. There has been no change in this report since first published on 9 October 2024. Again, FHFA’s MHPI:

“House price indexes for manufactured homes increased by 7.9 percent between second quarters of 2023 & 2024. They increased by 3.2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter.” And “In the second quarter of 2024, the median price of manufactured homes for sale was $231,000. This represents an increase of $1,000 from the second quarter of 2023.” Source: FHFA Manufactured Housing Price Index.

If the median price seems high to you, it’s likely because “The price indexes and median prices for manufactured homes are both based on data from real-property conventional mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.”

Know what’s interesting about that? It’s obvious, little to no attention is being paid by the FHFA, as well as the two GSE’s, about the continued difficulty in obtaining favorable, affordable chattel capital (a.k.a. ‘home only’ loans) for new HUD-Code homes going onto rental homesites in land lease communities across the U.S. Is anyone out there listening?

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

The National Association of Home Builders (‘NAHB’)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (‘HOI’), for a given geographical area (i.e. local housing market) is defined as the share of homes sold therein that would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income, based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria. Hence there are two major components of HOI: income & housing cost.

“In all, only 37.7 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of October 2023 and end of December were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $96,300. This is nearly identical to the 37.4 percent posted in the third quarter of last year, which was the lowest reading since NAHB began tracking affordability on a consistent basis in 2012.” Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

Miscellaneous Notes from MHI & MHARR Reports

Following information quoted from MHI’s Monthly Economic Report: 

“FEMA had 20 home shipments in September. FY2024 total was 163 homes (excluding adjustments).”

“Current Manufactured Home landscape includes 152 plants and 38 manufacturers. Two new plants opened, one in Mississippi and one in North Carolina.”

9.1% or 7.22%?  “Manufactured Homes as % of single-family home starts: Manufactured Homes accounted for 9.1% of single-family home starts in Sep. 2024.” How is this calculated? If the number of single-family home starts was a seasonally adjusted 1,354,000 and 112,833 monthly, then 9.1% of 112,833 would be 10,268 units or 1,453 more than the 8814 new HUD-Code homes reported by the IBTS. Or another way of viewing this: 8814 monthly IBTS units divided by 121,941= 7.22 percent, and not the 9.1 percent reported by MHI.

Following information quoted from MHARR’s News Item dated 4 November 2024.

Top ten shipment states from January 2023 to date (September 2024):

Texas, Florida, NC, Alabama, SC, Louisiana, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi

George Allen

Blog Posting # 817; Copyright 1 November 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatmhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

BROKEN PIECES & LIVES RESTORED

Do you have a friend, relative, employee; maybe even yourself, caught up in one or another type addiction or affliction? Well, this week’s blog posting is taking a detour from our usual MH business foci to introduce you to a new book recently published by a veteran land lease community portfolio owner/operator, Katie Hauck. You’ll recognize Ken and Katie Hauck’s firm as Hauck Homes of IL & TN.

‘From These BROKEN PIECES’ is not your usual literary fare, as it’s neither a novel nor nonfiction ‘read’; but rather, a collection of nearly three dozen true personal stories of individual affliction and redemption.

So, if you have a family member, friend, or casual acquaintance who’s trapped in a lifestyle of crime, addiction, or is a victim of tragedy or eating disorder, you (they) need to read this book!

And herein, redemption describes actual experiences of individuals rescued from various forms of addiction, abuse, and other antisocial and unhealthy lifestyle and relationships.

The book begins with the author telling, in casual story-telling fashion, her own experience of early marriage, divorce, and raising two children alone. Then finding new life – and love, via Bible study, church, prayer, and ‘an amazing man who later became my husband.’ At that point she jumps right into sharing compelling short stories, some would say testimonies, of young men and women, some older, who find themselves trapped in self-destructive lifestyle – but wanting to break those cycles and find a way out. Here are the first paragraphs of a couple of these heartwarming tales.

THE WALK AWAY

            “Charlie tugged on her aunt’s sleeve until she leaned closer. Charlie whispered into her ear, ‘Please help me get my mother away from him. Get her out of the situation she’s in.’ Her words turned into a prayer, ‘Lord, please save my mom.’

            Her mom, Tara, had stayed away to hide the bruises on her face, trapped in the toxic relationship that put them there. Trapped from all the decisions in her past that had gotten her to this point. She’d grown up with a good family and a grandfather who always kept them in church, but she’d developed a lying problem. It only got worse in her teen years. She would be whoever and do whatever was necessary to fit in.” p.93

FREE FALLING

            “Terror filled Jayme as she stared down at the earth thousands of feet below. Underneath the bubbling fear was a boiling excitement, It was time to leave the plane, and something told her that she would love this.

            She took a deep breath and jumped, wind whipping at her face. Her arms were outstretched as the world zipped by. This is what freedom feels lie, she thought. This is what loving feels like.

            Free falling 15,000 feet from an airplane felt like going a month without binging and purging herself. Bulimia had ruled her life. Her childhood perfectionism grew into a check-the-box relationship with God, food-restricting diet, and over-exercising, it ate away at her. Her relationship with her husband broke down. Finally, she left him and fled to Florida.” P.73

And this isn’t all ‘From These BROKEN PIECES’ has to offer. Following each short story there’s a one page open-outline featuring questions for the reader (i.e. the afflicted, the victimized) to answer, along with gentle recommendations on how to break that troublesome cycle.

Yes, as compelling and engaging a read as this book is, its’ true value lies in describing the practical paths available today for individuals who, as was sated earlier, are afflicted or victimized, and in need of redemption and recovery. So, consider ordering a copy of the book for your edification; consider ordering copies for friends, family members, employees or acquaintances who will likely benefit from reading these true, life-changing stories.

The book is available on amazon.com. Just be sure to designate: From These Broken Pieces, Katie Hauck Ministries.

George Allen

Blot Posting # 816; Copyright 25 October 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks_, comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (“RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding board member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant Colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

American Community Survey (‘ACS’) Data Stuns!

Census Bureau recently released new ACS data showing, in 2023, “…a record high 22.0 million renter households spent at least 30 percent of their income on housing.”

And “Rent increases outpaced renter income growth.” In 2023, median gross rent (including utilities) paid by renters was $1,406month – up 8 percent from previous year.

“Multiple factors raising costs of homeownership.” Median monthly cost for 51.6 million homeowners, with a mortgage, was $1,904. Why so high? Rising property taxes, insurance premiums, and other non-mortgage costs.

“Homeownership rates among households under age 35 decreased 0.5 percentage points to 2022-2023 to 36.1 percent.” This offset by higher rates among older households kept national homeownership rate at 65.2 percent in 2023.

“…the homeownership rate for black households remained 27.7 percentage points below the homeownership rate for white households (72.4 percent).” Homeownership rate among Hispanic households? (51.0 percent). Asian households @ 63.4 percent.

Household growth has been hot since the pandemic, but is now slowing. In 2010-2019, the US averaged 915,000 new households annually; then 2.33 in 2022; and, now 1.46 million in 2023.

“…the number of renter households living in single-family homes increased by 22,000 in 2023, the first growth in this rental housing stock since 2016. Total? 14.3 million Renter households lived in single-family homes last year.”

Have You Heard of the ‘1792 Exchange’?

It’s a 501©(3), educational, non-profit organization whose mission is to “preserve freedom by steering public companies back to neutral on ideological issues.” What’s that mean? Well, in a recent Press Release, the organization’s CEO urged “America’s top business leaders to take a stand against stakeholder capitalism and ditch divisive agendas.” that was first proposed at the 2019 Business Roundtable with 200 chief executives present.

1792 Exchange’s goal? Encourage business executives to reevaluate stakeholder-driven governance (as opposed to supporting shareholders & maximizing value), and get back to the business of doing business.

Recommend you research the ‘1792 Exchange’ online to learn more and form your own opinion of their actions and how their goal might relate to your corporate interests.

HUD Changes Monitoring Contractor

HUD’s Office of Manufactured Housing Programs (‘OMHP’) “has secured the services of a new monitoring contractor for the Federal Manufactured Housing Installation Program. The firm? Tribal One, replacing SEBA Professional Services.

Effective immediately all installer applications, HUD Forms 306, 307, 308, & 309 should go to Tribal One.

Contact information? Mailing address: 6161 S. Syracuse Way, Ste # 280, Greenwood Village, CO. 80111. Email: MHIPservices@tribal.one  And phone: (719) 675-6720. Points of contact: Peter Uson & Jeff Simpson.

Personally, I lost faith in HUD’s administration of the manufactured housing installation program when it decided, several years ago, to ignore the practicality and engineering integrity and efficacy of the Frost Free Foundation (‘FFF’) system originally proposed by industry consultant George Porter. In my opinion, if everyone (i.e. land lease community owners/operators) nationwide faithfully and rightfully used FFF to install and secure all HUD-Code manufactured homes, ‘everyone’ would be in compliance, not just the mishmash of compliant and noncompliant states we endure today.

Have You Signed Up to Attend MH2X Yet?

MH2X is SECO’s initiative to double 2025 production of manufactured homes, by encouraging community owners/operators to buy and sell new HUD-Code homes to fill vacant rental homesites and upgrade their properties.

Next MH2X Workshop will occur 20 & 21 November 2024, at the Country Inn &u Suites at 4500 Circle 75 Parkway, Atlanta, GA. 30339.

What’s involved? A dozen presenters, a community tour, templates, document and files, practical examples, and superb interpersonal and corporate networking. For more information and to register, visit contact@secoconference.com

Who will be present? In addition to owners/operators of land lease communities and property portfolios, there’ll be Business Development Executives present from all three Big-C HUD-Code housing manufacturers: CAVCO, Champion/Skyline, Clayton, and Live Oaks Homes.

What would it mean to ‘double 2025 production of manufactured homes’? Well, in 2022 our industry produced a century-to-date (‘CTD’) record high of 112,886 new MHs. The next year, in 2023, that total dropped to 89,169. And we can expect that decline to continue unless land lease community owners/operators (‘You!’) buy more new homes to place onto rental homesites within your properties. It’s entirely possible, with your efforts, to see year 2025 end with 170,000 new MHs produced (i.e. that’s roughly double the 89,169 produced back in 2023.

So, will we see you at this and future MH2X Workshops? Sure hope so! And if you can’t make it to this one, plan to be present at the Louisville MHShow, 15-17 January 2025, as that’s likely where the next MH2X Workshop will be held.

George Allen

Blog Posting # 815; Copyright 18 October 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (’MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable –attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource or both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via 9317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding board member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

EXPECTED & UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

During the month of October we are 5/6ths of the way through the 2024 hurricane season in the Caribbean basin and Gulf of Mexico. And what a damaging hurricane season it’s been these past several weeks, with Hurricanes Helene and Milton ravaging much of southeast U.S.

Consequences of Category 4 Hurricane Helene? According to information supplied by Texas based manufactured housing industry consultant Kurt Kelley. Reach him via www.mobileagency.com & (800) 458-4320, ext. 117.

Flooding, this time around, caused five to six times more damage than wind alone.

Some of the worst damage occurred in western North Carolina (400 miles from the Gulf), where flooding was catastrophic.

Less than three percent of homeowners carry flood insurance nationally, though Florida has the highest rate of flood insured properties.

Total hurricane property losses are estimated to be $39 billion, and uninsured flood losses to be $28 billion

Bottom line? Vast majority of NFIP covered flood losses are expected to be in Florida and related to storm surge – where mortgaged homes have to have coverage. However, in North Carolina, flood damage prevailed but very few homeowners carried flood insurance.

Furthermore, due to amount and cost of storm damage, Florida homeowners routinely see insurance rates up and availability down. In the past, insurers expected homes to be badly damaged or totally destroyed every 100 years. Now that period has been reduced to every 20 years. And, insurance rates in southern Florida are oft 5 percent of the value of the house, meaning a home worth $1,000,000may have a monthly insurance premium of $4,200 with a deductible of $50,000 or more.

Anything positive come out of these recent hurricane experiences?  Well, improved building standards in coastal areas resulted in less wind damage than projected.

So, what’s been an unintended consequence of the recent hurricanes? More sales and placements of new HUD-Code manufactured homes in land lease communities throughout the southeast, but outside of Florida. Here’re some recent communiques from community owners/operators in that region:

“We are going absolutely bonkers with the expansion of our new (100 rental homesites) community, along with the sale of new MHs to fill said sites. As fast as we can get homes ready to sell we’re selling them. And it’s not unusual for us to sell before they’re even ready! Prospective homebuyers/site lessees are even purchasing new homes that won’t be delivered until the end of the year. People love the new MHs. They also love our new development – as everything looks so nice and inviting. Wish I had another project to move to once we fill this one.” (Lightly edited. GFA)

“We are experiencing the same thing in our Georgia properties, where we’re having homes reserved with hard deposits at the time we order the new (manufactured) home. Never seen anything like it in the last seven years. The one caveat is that we have to order the right homes. Single 16X76, 3BR, 2B units are our most popular model right now.”

ANOTHER SOURCE OF MH INDUSTRY STATISTICS

OK, I’ve been around manufactured housing for a while – like nearly 50 years, but this is the first I’ve heard of SkyView Advisors and their monthly national sales report on ‘Manufactured Housing’. Their report for August 2024 suggests 54 (presumably land lease communities, a.k.a. manufactured home communities) sold for $130,452,400, and at $88,685 average selling price per (again, presumably) rental homesite; and an average of 90 sites per property sold.

Now, here’s what isn’t clear to me. Is that data just for the month of August 2024 or is it a year to date total, i.e. 54 communities @ $130,452,400.? Furthermore, is this in transactions that regularly occur between and among property portfolio owners/operators? Just wondering….

For more information, get in touch with Jared Bosch or Don Vedeen via jbosch@skyviewadvisors.com & dvedeen@skyviewadvisors.com

SECO ANNOUNCES NEXT ‘MH2X’CLASS

SECO’s MH2X Community Infill & Upgrade Workshop will be held on 20 & 21 November 2024, at the Country Inn & Suites in Atlanta, GA. For more information and to register, visit contact@secoconference.com

You’ll recall that the mission of MH2C workshops is to encourage and facilitate the doubling of 2025 manufactured housing production, by encouraging land lease community owners to buy and sell new manufactured homes to fill vacant rental homesites and upgrade their properties.

What does this mean? Well year 2023 total production of new manufactured homes was at 89,169 units, ‘down’ from the 2022 total of 112,886 new MHs. So there’s a long way to go and no one else, other than SECO & the MH2X workshops are trying to get us back over the 100,000/year benchmark. Bottom line? To produce 175,000 new HUD-Code manufactured homes by year end 2025! So, help us get there by attending this next MH2X Workshop in Atlanta, GA!

George Allen

Blog Posting # 814; Copyright 11 October 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent, the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consultant and author of many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institutes (‘MHII’), a founding board member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, and MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist & editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.

The ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ Explanation

What is the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’? What types of single-family residential housing are included in this new monthly comprehensive statistical survey? Well, here goes:

Offsite construction. This new housing category, a.k.a. factory-built housing, includes HUD-Code manufactured housing, modular & panelized (or ‘prefab’) housing, and Park Model recreational vehicles (‘RVs’).

(&) Single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’. This larger housing category has long been the all-inclusive measure of housing performance in the U.S., not including the offsite construction types just cited, except for HUD-Code manufactured housing sited on permanent foundations.

So, where does this housing data originate? The easiest to track is the number of single-family, site-built housing ‘starts’ researched and published monthly online by the U.S. Census Bureau. Visit: census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst/pdf

But offsite construction involves two different sources and a calculation.

HUD-Code manufactured housing monthly production is tracked by the Institute for building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) and sold to subscribers. Annual production totals? In the book SWAN SONG, dating back to 1955. Visit www.educatemhc.com

Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) housing monthly production. Since these units are built to local building codes and no one tacks either category, some housing professionals suggest the following formula: 2% of annualized monthly housing starts per U.S. Census Bureau , reduced to a monthly total, e.g. 1,150,000 X .02, divided by 12 months = 2500 ‘mods’ & panelized units.

Park Model RV production is tracked monthly by the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association and totals are published in RVIA’s online publication RVIA News. This category of offsite construction is included, as an increasing number of Park Model RVs are used as permanent housing, particularly in Sunbelt regions.

The Whole U.S. Housing Story for August 2024

Format for data that follows: First, the three categories of offsite construction, then a subtotal, followed by U.S. Census Bureau estimate of single-family site-built housing for August 2024. Finally, a grand total of all categories together, but with the number of modular & panelized units adjusted out, so as not to be counted twice.

1. HUD-Code manufactured housing units in August:   9,501
2. Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units in August:       2,260
3. Park Model RVs in August                                             299
4. Offsite construction subtotal in August                     12,060

• Census Bureau # of housing starts in August      1,356,000
• (+) Offsite construction subtotal in August             +12,060
• Grand total of U.S. housing starts in August        1,368,060
• (-) 2,260 Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units    1,365,800        

Bottom line ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ for August 2024? 1,365,800 new homes started! 

Mfd. Hsng. Shipment Volume @ August 2024

IBTS reports 9,501 HUD-Code homes produced during August 2024, up from 7,896 during the previous months, and up from 8,670 produced during August 2023. 14,968 floors produced.

Year to date (YTD) MH production thru August 2024 = 68,562; up from 58,692 during year 2023.

Production value? Based on decade+ old ‘per unit’ factor of $43,126; August 2024 production is valued at $409 million; and year to date national economic impact = $2.95 billion. This is a gross undervaluation of new HUD-Code manufactured housing production.  This ‘old factor’ needs to be reviewed, researched, and updated NOW! GFA

Stock Market Report on 4 October 2024

BRK-A              Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (Clayton Homes)   $687

SKY.                 Skyline Champion Corporation                      $92.93

CVCO               Cavco Industries, Inc.                                     $422.50

LEGH               Legacy Housing Corporation                          $26.54

NOBH              Nobility Homes                                               $35.26

ELS                   Equity Lifestyle, Inc.                                        $68.28

SUI                   Sun Communities, Inc.                                   $129.87

UMH               UMH Properties, Inc.                                      $19.03

TSC                  Flagship Communities, Inc.                            $15.06

MHPC              Mfd. Hsng. Properties, Inc.                             $.62

Manufactured housing/land lease community Composite Stock Index (‘CSI’) on 4 October = $811; down from $901 in September, yet above the base of $790.07 set in January 2022.

CSI does not include BRK-A.

FHFA’s new Manufactured House Price Index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, on 9 October 2024, released its new Manufactured Housing Price Index.

Simply put, ‘House price indexes for manufactured homes increased by 7.9 percent between second quarters of 2023 and 2024. They increased by 3.2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter.” And “In the second quarter of 2024, the median price of manufactured homes for sale was $231,000. This represents an increase of $1,000 from the second quarter of 2023.”

Does this median price seem a bit high to you? That’s likely because “The price indexes and median prices for manufactured homes are both based on data from real-property conventional mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.”

A Call for Comment & Recommendation…

So, what do you think of this new overview of all housing types produced and started in the U.S. during August 2024, along with a detailed summary of HUD-Code housing production and stock market prices for five public HUD-Code housing manufacturers and five land lease community property portfolio owners/operators? Plus information from a brand new FHFA manufactured house price index, released on 9 October 2024. Please let us know your thoughts and reactions via gfa7156@aol.com

George Allen

Blog Posting # 813; Copyright 4 October 2024. EducateMHC

Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and via www.educatemhc.com, to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH Productions totals since 1955. And my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consultant and author of many nonfiction texts.

George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding board member of MHI”s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, and MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist & editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management prayer & figures of speech.

‘Upside Down in a Mobile Home Park’

By

George Allen

The title ‘Upside Down…’ caught my eye as I browsed among art films in a local video store. Rented the film, took it home, and here’s what we viewed.

The movie’s setting is unclear. It could easily have been in New England, the Southeast, or the Pacific Northwest, though I’ve seen similar manufactured home communities in the rural Midwest. No question however, this was an upscale land lease community installing new multisection manufactured homes onsite at the turn of the century.

Central characters were a young couple, George & Carolyn, buying their first home. Both employed, no children or pets, and two older cars. And there was H. ‘Itch’ Balle, the retail sales center salesman/manager. Film begins with George reading a classified ad:

‘L(.)(.)K

New Homes for Sale in Sherwood Forest Estates’

What catches his eye, besides the nearby location, is the $4,000 move-in incentive offer! George phones; he and Carolyn visit; really like what they see, and buy! Their new home, already sited, but not yet landscaped, is an $80,000 multisection HUD-Code manufactured home. (Remember, this is back around year 2000).

Everything seemed to be going their way! Originally expecting to have to come up with $4,500.00 down payment, they only paid $500.00! How so? The $4,000.00 ‘move-in incentive’ was graciously applied ty the retailer/developer, to improve their homesite with shrubs, porch, and carport. Then that amount was added to the balance they’d be financing.

Even financing arrangements were a steal! Mr. Balle arranged for them to avoid paying ‘10% over 30 years’ term (That’d mean $733.13/month payments.*1), and got them a variable rate loan of only ‘9% over 30 years’ with maximum possible increase of 2% (or two points) after one year. Their first year rate was only $672.18/month*2 on their new home mortgage!

And the Good News did not stop there! At the point in the movie when George & Carolyn suggest they might ‘shop around’ before committing to buy at Sherwood Forest, ‘Itch’ announced the entire first year’s rent of $285/month would be waived if they signed the sales contract that very day!

Now, that was a ‘no brainer’ decision if ever there was one. They’d already saved $4,000.00 on the housing down payment (Somehow they thought they’d be paying off less than $83,500.00 though…); were saving $60.95/month on the loan payment or $731.40 per year; and now, a ‘signing bonus’ (Just like a pro athlete!), they were saving yet another $3,420.00 in rent during the first year of being a resident at Sherwood Forest Estates. This was all too good to be true! No question, they signed!

Then the movie fast-forwarded a year and a month into the future. The euphoric sales center scene of 13 months ago is now a distant bittersweet memory. During the past year, Carolyn had become pregnant and was no longer working. And with the extra money from the ‘house deal’ – more than $4,000.00 in down payment and mortgage savings, waived rent, and no security deposit (forgot to mention that little gem earlier), they’d bought an expensive new Ford SUB on payments.

It was bill-paying day and George & Carolyn were out of money. Their variable rate mortgage payment had just jumped from $672.18/month to almost $800.00/month*3 – not including property taxes and homeowner insurance commitments. And a previously unknown notice had just arrived, a monthly site rent bill of not $285.00/month, but $300.00/month, due to an annual rent increase. Where in the world were they going to come up with at least an extra $400.00/month, on just one salary, to pay rent, mortgage, payments on the new car, with a baby on the way?

As the movie ended, this couple was, in effect, completely upside down in their financial commitments and responsibilities – with no way out, but to walk away from their new dream home. The epilogue, through a voice-over by a moderator listed the winners and losers in this housing transaction mishap.

’Winners. Commissioned salespersons selling new homes. Lenders providing high interest chattel mortgages. Developers intent on filling new communities within a year, then flipping to the highest bidder. Homeowner/site lessee during the first year of residency.

Losers. The HUD-Code manufactured housing industry’s image and reputation! Lenders risking repossession and losing money, but able to resell and originate new loans. Salespersons setting homebuyers up for failure will likely suffer consequences somewhere, somehow, along the line. And developers earn a reputation for profiteering.

As I contemplated an appropriate moral, lesson learned, or summary, for ‘Upside Down in a Mobile Home Park’ several came to mind: a little Latin, a slang expression, a Biblical admonition, and a quote from the late Gub Mix’s popular column, ‘From My Soapbox’.

• Caveat emptor…”Let the buyer beware!”

• ‘A sucker is born every minute’

• The Golden Rule: ‘Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.’ Matthew 7:12. Some would add this Gold Rule: “He who has the gold rules!”

• “…manufactured housing industry devotes an extraordinary amount of its’ resources to sell homes to people who really aren’t qualified home buyers. Why? Because they allow us to sell the ‘old mobile home way’…it’s easier than attempting to sell to qualified buyers who require a lot more effort. Manufactured housing may be the only industry in America that ignores the customer’s desires in their marketing practices. Unfortunately for us, potential buyers are much more savvy these days and appear to be abandoning us in droves.” June 2000

Hmm. Perhaps that’s why, 15 years after enduring our industry’s worst production year ever (i.e. 2009 = 48,789 new MHs), we continue to find it difficult to consistently reach and exceed the aforementioned industry standard of 100,000 new HUD-Code manufactured homes produced per year.

End Notes.

1. $80,000 (-) $500 DP + $4,000 add back = $83,500 (or 83.5) X 8.78 loan factor = $733.13/month

• $83,500 (or 83.5) X 8.05 loan factor = $672.18/month

• $83,500 (or 83.5) X 9.52 loan factor = $794.92/month

Know what? If, as an industry, we’re not careful to produce a quality home at an affordable-attainable price, ‘others out there’ might well drive our national market share lower. Here’re two examples:

Amazon.com now markets an entire line of attractive foldable homes on line, beginning at $19,000.00 apiece. Check it out.

And Volferda Capsule Houses are emerging in several markets. Not my desire or interest, but surely designs and features attractive to others, particularly young homebuyers.

If you’d like to share your thoughts on this panoply of housing matters, reach me via gfa7156@aol.com

George Allen