George Allen / EducateMHC Blog Mobile Home & Land Lease Community Advocate & Expert

July 8, 2022

WHAT NO ONE ELSE IN ‘MH’ WILL TELL YOU

Filed under: Uncategorized — George Allen @ 8:39 am

Blog Posting # 697. Copyright @ 8 July 2022. EducateMHC

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, realty asset class historian, trend spotter, education resource, textbook supplier for land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog and or connect with EducateMHC, telephone (317) 881-3815, email gfa7156@aol.com and or visit www.educatemhc.com Previous phone #s no longer connected.

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: to promote HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable, attainable housing! Be MHM certified!

INTRODUCTION: I am grateful that, as an industry, we have MHInsider magazine to keep us informed; even more grateful for Kurt Kelley’s online Manufactured Housing Review for publishing writers we’d never read otherwise. Which brings me to wonder, who and how many MH industry folk, and land lease community owners/operators, appreciate the specialized information I bring to you, via this blog posting, each week? It stuns me to realize, what I pen monthly, about the ‘accurate’ MH shipment total, along with stock market performances among our ten public companies, is available nowhere else!


I.

WHAT NO ONE ELSE IN ‘MH’ WILL TELL YOU

Yes, it’s that time of month again, when we 1) look back to see how many new manufactured homes were shipped during the month of May 2022 (This is not as simple as it sounds!); and, 2) what the stock market prices were for ten public ‘MH’ companies on 5 July 2022. (No one else tells you this!)

In the first instance, the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’ = HUD’s official scorekeeper for the ‘MH’ industry), reported 10,451 new homes shipped nationwide during May, this ‘up’ from 10,165 new homes shipped during April, and ‘way up’ from 8,606 new homes shipped during May 2021, a year earlier!

What does this translate into ‘year to date’ (‘YTD’) shipments? That’s 50,286 for the first five months of this year; up 5,957 new homes from the YTD May 2021 level! So, we’re on track, at the present time, to surpass the 105,772 new homes shipped during all of year 2021.

How ‘bout value? Well, since we continue to use MHI’s Dr. Stephen C. Cooke’s production value factor from a decade ago, it pencils out this way: At $43,126 ‘production value’ per new MH, X 10,451 new homes shipped during May 2022, that total production value is $450,000,000. And the YTD ‘production value’ total is approximately $2,169,000,000. Keep in mind, however, the wholesale and retail values of these homes is considerably higher than the $43,126 just cited. No question about it, we need an updated ‘production value’ factor now! Anyone at MHI paying attention?

In the second instance, among ten public MH and land lease community portfolio firms, all their stock prices on 5 July 2022 have declined from the month before, 3 June 2022. That’s pretty much in line with stock market negative performance of late. Specifically,

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (including Clayton Homes) is approximately $410,000 per share.
Skyline Champion Corporation is at $51.12; down from $54.38 the month before
Cavco Industries, Inc. is at $206.30; down from $221 the month before
Legacy Housing Corporation is at $13.29; down from $16 the month before
Nobility Homes is at $28.00; down from $30.50 the month before
Equity Lifestyle, #1 on the last ALLEN REPORT, is at $70.97; down from $78.00 the month before
Sun Communities, #2 on last ALLEN REPORT, is at $159.34; down from $167 the month before
UMH Properties, # 6 on last ALLEN RPEORT, is at $17.96; down from $20.05 the month before
Flagship Communities, #23 on ALLEN REPORT, is at $15.21; down from $17.30 month before
MHPC, Inc., #28 on last ALLEN REPORT, is at $1.85; down from $2.60 the month before

And did you know there’s a measurement known as the MH/land lease community Composite Stock Index or CSI? Well, there is, and it dropped to $664.04 on 5 July, down from the previous month (3 June) at $703.83

Now, amidst all this, there’s a serious conundrum (‘a riddle; a hard question’) afoot in the manufactured housing industry today, and it goes like this:

How can the sole national trade entity, claiming to represent all sectors of the manufactured housing industry, continue to be guilty of the following:

• Routinely publishing, to members and others, a monthly HUD-Code housing shipment level different from total published by IBTS – and reported similarly (in the latter instance) by HUD, MHARR, and EducateMHC. This clearly belies a divided industry, one incapable of simple unity, even where basic performance statistics are concerned! Why does this happen? My guess is the three dominant manufacturers demand it this way.

• NOT publishing monthly stock market prices among ten public firms, five as HUD-Code housing manufacturers, and five as land lease community portfolio owners/operators. It only makes sense, that folk ‘within & outside’ the industry and realty asset class, should rely on this national trade entity for this information as well. Why does this not happen? Again, my guess is the three dominant manufacturers are not anxious for us to see….

• Severely under-represent an estimated 50,000 land lease communities nationwide, especially during this time of turmoil, effected by irresponsible investors who over-pay for property acquisitions, and soon thereafter, raise rents and add new tenant fees. There are simple ways to address this matter but leadership appears reluctant to do so. Why? Here to, self-interest may well play a role in not rocking the business boat.

These are just three perennial shortfalls that continue to hobble the manufactured housing industry overall, amidst ongoing criticism from several corners. The most recent quasi-public effort to right these wrongs (i.e. under-representation and weak advocacy) has called for the formation of a new national trade entity to truly represent the needs of all sectors of the manufactured housing industry – with exception of HUD-Code manufacturers who’re already in control. Status of that effort to date? These critics (an association, online press, & others) have been publicly challenged to PUT UP or SHUT UP by 15 August 2022. Specifically, PUT UP an effort to form said new national entity by then; or, once and for all, SHUT UP about the matter until a capable, experienced, motivated organizer steps forward to lead the industry and asset class to unity and renewed prosperity!

The significance of 15 August? First off; that day, more than 500 leaders and executives of the RV & MH industries will gather at the RV/MH Heritage Foundation, in Elkhart, IN., for its’ annual induction banquet, welcoming ten individuals into the prestigious Hall of Fame. Second; what better place or time (the day before or after) to begin planning a new era for manufactured housing and land lease communities, than at the very location where previous national challenges have been met and resolved (e.g. On 2/27/2009 more than 100 MH execs met and agreed to design a Community Series Home or CSH, for siting within land lease communities). Point? There’ve been NO attempts to date, to getting a post-production organization off the ground. So, expect on or about 15 August, heretofore critics and naysayers will be again challenged to SHUT UP!

So, what happens after 15 August, if there’s no challenge to the present national status quo? Your guess is as good as mine. I wonder….

George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMH

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