Blog Posting # 823; Copyright 13 December 2024. EducateMHC
Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MJH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’), comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRE’) component of MH! EduateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource. Contact EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email: gfa7156@aol.com, and www.educatemhc.com to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. Also my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consulting, and authoring many nonfiction texts.
George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (“MHI’), a founding member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran, retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, author/editor of 30 books and chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer, and figures of speech.
‘WHOLE U.S. HOUSING STORY’ FOR OCTOBER 2024
While the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ continues to be a work in progress, housing professionals have been expressing increased and continuing interest in its’ truly eclectic content, i.e. statistical data from various housing sources. So, just what is the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’?
The Whole U.S. Housing Story is an ongoing monthly collection and summary of ALL types of ‘housing starts’ throughout the U.S. However, since most present-day reports of this nature, via U.S. Census Bureau, only cover ‘single-family site-built housing starts’, the Whole U.S. Housing Story presents a bigger picture, including ‘offsite construction’ categories of housing such as HUD-Code manufactured housing, modular & panelized (or ‘prefab’) housing, and Park Model recreational vehicles (‘RVs’).
HUD-Code manufactured housing, when installed on a permanent foundations on building sites conveyed fee simple, are also oft identified as ‘single-family site-built housing’.
And in time, ‘offsite construction’ might include various types of ADUs (‘accessory dwelling units’), e.g. Tiny Houses, sophisticated ‘sheds’, customized steel storage containers, ‘capsule houses’, even 3-D printer-produced homes.
So, where does monthly housing ‘start’ data originate? The easiest to track is the number of single-family site-built housing starts researched, tallied and published monthly online by the U.S. Census Bureau. Visit census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst/pdf. There, visit the Monthly New Residential Construction website, and you’ll see ‘seasonally adjusted annual’ totals. Divide the monthly ‘start’ total (actually, seasonally adjusted annual ‘start’ total) by 12 months to get a clean monthly average ‘start’ figure. Further details to follow.
Researching the offsite construction category of housing production.
The monthly production of HUD-Code manufactured housing is tracked and reported to subscribers by the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’). While monthly data is what we need for the Whole U.S. Housing Story (e.g. 10,263 MHs @ Oct. 24), annual MH production totals are compiled and reported by the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’) and the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (‘MHARR’). A published record of annual MH production totals, going back to 1955, is available in the SWAN SONG text, available from www.educatemhc.com
Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) housing monthly production is, at this time, tracked by no one! Why? These offsite construction units are built to local building codes and are next to impossible to research accurately. Some housing professionals suggest this formula: 2% of seasonally-adjusted annual housing starts, per U.S. Census Bureau, then reduced to a monthly average, e.g. 1,311,000 ‘starts’ X .02 & divided by 12 months = 2,185 modular & panelized units during October 2024.
Park Model RV production is tracked monthly and reported by the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association (‘RVIA’) via their online publication RVIA News (e.g. 346 RVs during October 2024). Or simply google Park Model RV production. This category of offsite construction is included because an increasing number of Park Model RVs are used as permanent housing, particularly in Sunbelt regions of the U.S.
Now for the Whole U.S. Housing Story proper.
Format. First, the three categories of offsite construction and a subtotal of same, followed by U.S. Census Bureau estimate of single-family, site-built housing starts during October 2024. Finally, a grand total of all categories, but with the estimated number of modular & panelized units adjusted out, so as not to be counted twice.*1
- HUD-Code manufactured housing unit production during October 2024 10,263
- Modular & panelized (‘prefab’) units estimated for October 2024 *2 2,185
- Park Model RVs produced during October 2024 346
- Offsite construction subtotal for October 2024 12,794
- U.S, Census Bureau # of housing ‘starts’ during October 2024 *3 109,250
- (+) Offsite construction subtotal for October 2024 12,794
- Grand total of all U.S. Housing Starts during October 2024 122,044
- (-) 2185 Modular & panelized units in October 2024 = 119,659
Bottom Line: ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’ for October 2024 is 119,859 new homes started. This compares favorably with the five year average of annual new housing starts in the U.S. at 1,448,620 units; which divided by 12 months = 120,718/month, just 1059 units more than the 119,659 houses started during October 2024.
End Notes.
- Modular & panelized units, though offsite construction, are usually included in the U.S… Census Bureau ‘starts’ reporting.
- 1,311,000 X .02 & divided by 12 months = 2185
- 1,311,000 divided by 12 months = 109,250
Mfd. Housing Production Volume @ October 2024
IBTS reports 10,263 new HUD-Code homes produced during October 2024, up from 8814 produced during September 2024, and 8292 MHs produced during October 2023. 16,040 floors
Year to date (‘YTD’) production? As of October 2024, 86,639 new units produced compared to 75,040 units during October 2023.
Production value? Again, based on the decades old ‘per unit’ factor of $43,126/unit, October 2024 production is valued at 442 million; and, YTD at 3.77 billion.
Stock Market Report for 5 December 2024
BRK-A Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (Clayton Homes) $706 Up from November
SKY Skyline Champion Corporation $104.23Up from November
CVCO Cavco Industries $479. Up from November
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation $25.41 Down from November
NOBH Nobility Homes $33.00 Up from November
ELS, Inc. Equity Lifestyle $70.50 Up from November
SUI, Inc. Sun Communities $126.16 Down from November
UMH, Inc. UMH Properties $19.87 Up from November
Flagship Communities $16.08 Down from November
MHPC, Inc. Manufactured Housing Properties $62 No change from November
Manufactured Housing/ land lease community Composite Stock Index (‘CSI’): 5 December 2024 = $995. Up from $839 in November, and well above the base $790 established in January 2022.
George Allen