Blog Posting # 810; Copyright 13 September 2024. EducateMHC
Know this! HUD-Code manufactured housing (‘MH’) is federally-regulated, performance-based, affordable-attainable, factory-built housing (a.k.a. another type of offsite construction). And land lease communities (a.k.a. manufactured home communities & ‘mobile home parks’) comprise the commercial real estate (‘CRS’) component of MH! EducateMHC is the online advocate, official historian, trade term & trend tracker, as well as information resource for both business models, and to a lesser extent the recreational vehicle (‘RV’) industry. Access EducateMHC via (317) 881-3815; email gfa7156@aol.com and via www.educatemhc.com, to purchase Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry and SWAN SONG – a history of land lease communities & official record of annual MH production totals since 1955. And my autobiography, From SmittyAlpha6 to MHMaven, describes personal combat adventures in Vietnam as a USMC lieutenant, a 45 year entrepreneur business career in MH & community ownership, as well as freelance consultant & author of many nonfiction texts.
George Allen is the sole emeritus member of the Manufactured Housing Institute (‘MHI’), a founding board member of MHI’s National Communities Council (‘NCC’) division, an RV/MH Hall of Fame enshrinee, and MHInsider magazine’s ‘Allen Legacy’ columnist and editor at large. He’s a Vietnam combat veteran and retired lieutenant colonel of U.S. Marines, and author/editor of 30 books & chapbooks on MH, communities, business management, prayer & figures of speech.
The ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story: July 2024’
With each passing month I gain confidence I’m ‘onto something significant’ where U.S. housing starts statistical reporting is concerned. As most readers of this weekly blog know, I’ve been tracking monthly and annual HUD-Code manufactured housing production for many years.*1 And during the last decade or so, I’ve reported on Wall Street stock market performance of five HUD-Code manufacturers and five publicly-owned portfolio owners/operators of land lease communities.*2 Well, starting this year (2024) I broadened this statistical reporting horizon to research and collectively report all forms of new single family residential housing starts nationwide. This has not been easy or without error. To the best of my knowledge this inclusive perspective has never before been explored. So, here’s where I am with the project to date.
First, what types of single family residential housing comprise the ‘Whole U.S. Housing Story’? Well, largest category is what the US Census Bureau refers to as privately-owned, single family site-built housing. Parenthetically, this includes HUD-Code manufactured homes sited on permanent foundations and owned fee simple. In July that housing start category total numbered 1,238,000 units (seasonally annualized), and when divided by 12 months = 103,166/month of July.*3 But that’s not all. There’s now what is known as offsite construction.
Offsite Construction, a fairly new inclusive housing trade term, is comprised of 1) modular & panelized (a.k.a. ‘prefab’) housing, 2) HUD-Code manufactured housing or MH, & 3) Park Model recreational vehicles (i.e. Today oft cited as housing, especially in Sunbelt regions of the U.S.).
In the first instance, as there are no formal data ‘trackers’, it is suggested one calculate 2% of the 1,238,000 for estimated annual volume of modular & panelized housing units or 24,760 units; then divide by 12 months to calculate 2,063+/- such units during July 2024.
Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) supplies HUD-Code manufactured housing totals, e.g. for July = 7,896 units, of singlesection and multisection configurations.
And, RVIA News announces Park Model production totals monthly, e.g. 337 for July 2024. Now, those three totals together (10,296) comprise the estimated total volume of offsite construction; again, being modular & panelized; HUD-Code MH; and, Park Model RVs.
When the 10,296 units of offsite construction are added to the monthly residual of 1,238,000 housing starts (i.e. 1,238,000 divided by 12 months & minus 2,063 mods & panelized = 101,104 units); suggesting a grand total of 111,400 ‘whole U.S. housing starts’ during July 2024.
Bottom line? 111,400 ‘whole U.S. housing starts’ during July 2024, annualized (but not seasonally adjusted), suggests an total of 1,336,800 units by year end 2024; 97,800 more than the 1,238,000 seasonally-adjusted housing starts suggested by the U.S. Census bureau in July, but 664,200 units fewer than the estimated 2,000,000 housing starts needed annually to meet U.S. housing needs!
That is indeed the ‘bottom line’ reason for calculating monthly, then annual, ‘whole U.S. housing starts – to gauge how well – or poorly, the whole housing market is performing in behalf of the U.S. citizenry. Today it is not performing well at all! Why? It all has to do with housing finance; the availability and cost of traditional housing mortgages as well as chattel capital (a.k.a. personal property loans or ‘home only loans’) for MHs sited in land lease communities nationwide!
So, where do we go from here? Again, assuming I continue to research and publish this ‘Whole U.S. Housing Starts’ data each month, working out kinks along the way, this report gives us a better, more accurate view of housing start volume in the U.S. month to month and annually.
Your observations, comments, and recommendations are welcome here: Gfa7156@aol.com
GFA
End Notes.
- For annual MH production totals dating back to 1955, read SWAN SONG, a history of land lease communities, to see the roller coaster this industry has been on for 50 years. This text available for purchase directly from www.educatemhc.com
- Land lease communities, a.k.a. manufactured home communities, and before that, ‘mobile home parks’.
- Census.gov/construction/nrc.pdf/newresconst/pdf (Reminder: Use monthly data)